River bet size with an overpair

[Dunkman]

Ok, so villian in this hand is fairly decent for 50nl, like 22/8/1.35 over 150 hands, and won a ton of money. However, they play really straightforward so they don't scare me much. Also, I've kinda noticed that although they are generally solid, they play several tables and don't really seem to adjust to their particular opponent in a given hand (assume everyone is a fish until it becomes really obvious otherwise.) However, that hasn't really been hurting them too much, since most of the people at 50nl are fish.
Anyway, onto the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop

MP ($14.20)
Hero ($52.35)
SB ($18.95)
BB ($115.15)
UTG ($76.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Yeah, I usually make it 2.50 or 3 with this hand PF, but 1)table was being pretty nitty (empty seat atm was the fish that BB busted recently, so we lost our huge CS) and 2) I have the button.

Flop: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $5, SB folds.

Ok, so maybe I should have raised here, but w/e. No way this villian has a 2 unless it's quads, so I'm not even remotely worried about that. Could be any pp really, or any T. Villian is reraising anything that beats me PF except TT. Anyway, I figured I may spook villian if they have like T9, and they have like 2 outs, so lets just play position and make them sweat.

Turn: ($18) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls $10.

Ok, so my turn bet is kinda on the smallish sucky side. When villian checked the turn I was almost certain they had a lone T (and like 1% of the time going for a c/r, but w/e), so I wanted to make a bet they could call.

River: ($38) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets ?</font>

Ok, really hoping they have JT, maybe they'll pay off more on the river. How much can I expect them to pay off on this river, given my read is that they have top pair? Continuing my thought from above, I have no reason to think that villian gives me credit for being a decent player.

[Grunch]

Clear value bet with a hint of blocking bet. Keep in mind that J will be a little scary to an ABC 2p2er still in the weak-tight stage. So I bet a little less or a LOT more. If the opponent likes to snap off bluffs, go all-in. If not, bet 15-20. If he raises, fold.

[Robert Andersson]

Clear valuebet! Im not sure that i would like to fold to a raise so I think i would push here. There are some hands that will pay you off.

[xwillience]

Flop. Meh. the board isnt to scary so i dont mind the call as much but id like to be building a pot to get it all in.

Turn. bet a little more.

River. Push is fine.


This is a hand where you really cant eff up an over pair. so nothing you do is horrendous. But you definitely want to focus on maximizing your EV here and getting all your money in the middle.

[bottomset]

I would have bet 14-15 on the turn, and then shoved the river, I think I still shove here





[ QUOTE ]
assume everyone is a fish until it becomes really obvious otherwise

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what I would do if I was playing NL25, 50

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop. Meh. the board isnt to scary so i dont mind the call as much but id like to be building a pot to get it all in.

Turn. bet a little more.

River. Push is fine.


This is a hand where you really cant eff up an over pair. so nothing you do is horrendous. But you definitely want to focus on maximizing your EV here and getting all your money in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was taking a whiffed overs line with this hand. To clear something up, whether or not to bet the river isn't the question, obviously it's a vb. I just feel like I'm missing value on the river because when I make a smallish vb and they call I assume they would have called more, and when I push and they fold I feel like an idiot. I think I do like a push here though...my line really does look kinda like missed overs, and the desperate river push may very well get called by top pair.

[xwillience]

sometimes its very player dependent. for instance, one villain may call a 1/2 pot bet 90% of the time. But will NEVER call a full PSB.

[Isura]

Shove or bet $15, I prefer shove.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
assume everyone is a fish until it becomes really obvious otherwise



[/ QUOTE ]

thats what I would do if I was playing NL25, 50

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I do at nl400.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove or bet $15, I prefer shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I bet $15, they instacalled with AT, and I kicked my desk because I knew I had screwed it up. Thanks for all the great advice everyone.