55$ QJ sorted UTG. blinds 50/100

[AllinDan]

shillx: QJs is one of my favorite shoving hands too, but I think it's pretty bad right here. You just aren't that desperate.

[FUJItheFISH]

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shillx: QJs is one of my favorite shoving hands too, but I think it's pretty bad right here. You just aren't that desperate.

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i'm with $hillx.

[jcm4ccc]

My guess is that this is probably a marginally profitable play. The stacks are beautifully situated for a steal from UTG == almost perfect. No shorties, no big stacks in the blinds, everybody kind of marginal.

Also, QJs is a good hand to be doing this with, in case somebody calls you and you have to play a flop. If the flop doesn't hit or give you a draw, then you can safely fold knowing you are behind (unless it's the BB who called you, in which case I'm pushing any flop he checks to me). With a hand like 22 or 33, I would prefer a push to a raise, as almost every flop will look ugly to you.

Regardless of your opponent's level of expertise, a 3xbb raise from UTG with 11bbs looks HUGE to them. Especially if you have been reasonably tight. Nobody is going to want to play back at you unless they have a very good hand.

I estimate that you need to steal the blinds 67% of the time for this to be break-even, since you are raising 300 chips to steal 150 chips. In order to steal the blinds 67% of the time, your opponent's calling/pushing range needs to be 88+,AJs+,AQo+. If the table has been reasonably tight and you have been reasonably tight, I'll bet that you can do better than that. For example, I would expect that the CO's and MP1's pushing range to be quite a bit tighter than that.

With 1100 chips and the blinds 100/50 and the blinds about to hit me again, I am willing to make a high-variance play, if I think there's a decent chance that the play is +EV. I would say that this play qualifies.

[samsonh]

Easy fold, this is why the 55s are profitable. The regulars all suck, but unfortunately they keep sucking out on me

[Snarf]

OP,

sometimes in STTF we don't take the time to explain our reasonings behind hands we generally agree on to be standard.

you've gotten a little bit of that in this thread, and so I will explain a little bit to you here.


you have 1,100

if you raise to t300 and someone shoves over you
(assumedly they have you covered)

now we have to call 800 into 300+300+800 = 1400 pot.

now at this point we'd be correct to fold against that 99+,AJs+ range as earlier stated. (getting 1.4:1 as a 2;1 dog)

so our plan here is raise 28% of our stack
fold if someone pushes over
check/fold flop if cold-called and we whiff
(i think that was your flop plan it sounded like?)


sure, sometimes in exchange for this seemingly rather large risk we will add the blinds to our stack. (about 14% worth)
on rarer occassion, we'll win more when the following happens:

a) they only cold-call
b) we flop "big"
c) they don't flop as big
d) our hand holds if we do end up w/a showdown



seems like we're risking a lot for not that much return



as far as limping, I guess I *MIGHT* consider it if it has been an unusually tight table or an unusually loose/passive table. Thats rare...and even then I'm pretty sure its still a leak in the long run - but not as horrible a leak as it would be without either of those two extreme circumstances.

as far as shoving?
QJs = not the nutz
11 BBs = healthy


so those are a few of the reasons why I would simply ditch this hand preflop and why I wouldn't really raise or limp that much if ever.

[JROK777]

A very nice, rational, well thought out post. And I like the calm and professional manner it was presented. Very nice.

[Pudge714]

Ryendal,
Is this a regular or a turbo.
Even if a good regular made that play it doesn't make it right. I consider myself to be the best regular at the $60's (ZOMG GAUNTLET IS THROWN DOWN) and I make mistakes or stupid plays why is it so unbelievable to think this regular wasn't paying attention.