NL 100: how do I best maximize here?

Marlow · #1 10-09-2007, 12:22 AM

Villain is 15/13 over about 600 hands. Seems like he does not get out of line much. I'd be stunned if he does not have the ace here.

I hate the way I played this, and I'm sure that everyone else will, too. Sometimes this min-raise will induce a huge bet if the opponent is uncomfortable - but that probably does not apply to this guy.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $291
SB: $14
BB: $132.40
UTG: $100

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $16, Hero raises to $27...

wems · #2 10-09-2007, 12:44 AM

id say shove or raise to like 57ish, you could just smoothcall and shove turn, but I wouldnt just cause of flush draw.

ronitonline · #3 10-09-2007, 12:51 AM

I raise bigger, or just call. Minraising his raise looks very odd, regardless of what his read is at this moment, he will be very concerned.

lank4ever · #4 10-09-2007, 02:05 AM

I think calling this flop even with the flush draw out is by far the best play.

1. Assuming he bets 25 on the turn 70% of the time and with an ace or incomplete flush draw (too high?).
2. You always push on the turn regardless of whether the flush hits.
3. He always folds the turn without a made flush.
4. You have 77% equity against a made flush on the turn.

X=% of range that is flush draws
1-X=% of range that is aces

.70(1-X)*25+1/45*X*112.9-8/45*X*.77*112.9=0
-17.5X-12.945X+1750
X=57.48% of his range must be flush draws for us to break even.

Same equation assuming his range is 25% flush draws
B=percent of time he bets turn

18.75B=3.236
B=17.26% of the time he must bet for us to break even

I’d say that a 15/13’s 4 bet calling range and turn raising range are about equal. The times he folds the turn with something he would have called a flop 4 bet with would be balanced out by the times he hits 2 pair with Ax and decides to call all in.

Also X would get bigger and B would get smaller if stacks were smaller (closer to 100BBs).

Any of my assumptions or my math may be totally wrong, but I would love for somebody to make some of their own, and say why I am wrong.