$16t: SB push on bubble with a sitout

JuntMonkey · #1 02-09-2007, 01:41 AM

Button is a sitout. Obviously this is a push under normal circumstances. Do you still push it with the sitout? I wasn't sure whether he would come back or not. If you're sure he won't, do you keep folding and make the money with 25 chips or whatever?

Would we even win the race to the money? It hurts my brain to try to figure it out.

Also, if you're the person who said "stupid push" after I pushed it, you're a douche.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t3625)
Button (t1640)
Hero (t1540)
BB (t6695)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to t1515 (All-in)

DevinLake · #2 02-09-2007, 01:52 AM

I'd push it. I don't think you should change that drastically because someone is sitting out. Tighten up a bit, avoid ATC pushs etc. But, I think you have enough of an edge to be making this push.

taipan168 · #3 02-09-2007, 02:03 AM

I would shove it too. My usual approach to sitouts is to assume that they will come back sooner rather than later, and with 1640 chips it will be quite a few hands before he's blinded out. You have a well above average hand for shoving in the SB, I'd just do it.

Plus (hopefully I don't have this wrong) when it gets to the hand where he has 50 chips more than you, you're in the BB and you're both AI, you need to win against both the inevitable push from one of the other stacks as well as his hand to finish ITM.

JacJacAtk · #4 02-09-2007, 03:19 AM

This is a pretty borderline push though, isn't it? Against a BB who calls decently it's got to be right near break-even, and throw in the fact that button's sitting out and BB has more than enough chips to spite call I think it's probably a fold. I think I'd also rather push into CO because, despite the fact that you have to push through two big stacks, I think it looks stronger and the stack setup probably tightens up the calling ranges just enough to be useful.

Shillx · #5 02-09-2007, 04:14 AM

I'm not real big on this push no matter what. SNGPT says that it is about 0 EV against a perfect playing BB but that doesn't tell the whole story. The value of picking up the blind/winning a race is worse then what ICM would predict and I don't really feel like getting into it but he would have to fold a shitton to make me want to push.

citanul · #6 02-09-2007, 04:26 AM

i would push any two cards next hand intead of some moderate hand this hand.

Mark1978 · #7 02-09-2007, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i would push any two cards next hand intead of some moderate hand this hand.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I don't get it.

RexWoo · #8 02-09-2007, 05:26 AM

I don't get it either. Explain plz ?

Finnisher · #9 02-09-2007, 09:23 AM

I want a pretty tight guy in the BB to shove this. You still have FE if you fold this so I'd just take it easy and see how the situation develops. But I doubt pushing is a huge mistake unless BB hates you.

[ QUOTE ]
Plus (hopefully I don't have this wrong) when it gets to the hand where he has 50 chips more than you, you're in the BB and you're both AI, you need to win against both the inevitable push from one of the other stacks as well as his hand to finish ITM.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sit-outers don't get a showdown at Stars.

jgunnip · #10 02-09-2007, 09:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would push any two cards next hand intead of some moderate hand this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I don't get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The basic idea is that you'll have much more FE next hand since the BB won't call without a premium hand and SB's calling range will be significantly tighter than it is in this hand.

However I think K7 is too strong to fold here. If hero's hand was weaker I would like a fold/push atc next hand line better.