NLCSH- 4 bet all in w/ 2nd pair?

abcjnich · #1 08-24-2007, 12:59 PM

200NL 100bb deep

Villain is extremely tight preflop. I don't have PT on my laptop,but looking at hand stats I have won 52% of hands PREFLOP over more than 100 hands. He has not shown down a single bluff all session, and he has not shown down a single slowplayed hand. Postflop, he is pretty tag, but he has 2 and 3 barrelled about as much as I have making me think he has to be bluffing some. So far he has not made shown down a single postturn bet with anything less than an overpair. OTB, when he doesn't fold, he usually raises with some calls.

the hand: he limps otb, I raise to 8 w/ A8o, he calls. Flop is Th8h2c. I lead for 12, he calls.
Turn (40): 5s, I bet 28, he raises to 72. I go all in.

Thoughts? My bet is for protection against semibluffs and bluffs. Anyone put him on a hand that beats me?

jakeduke · #2 08-24-2007, 03:07 PM

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So far he has not made shown down a single postturn bet with anything less than an overpair.

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Anyone put him on a hand that beats me?

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yes?

Had villain limped any big hands? How did he play flush draws on the flop/turn? All sets and T8 are certainly in his range here. I guess he could be semibluffing with hearts or 79, but that doesn't sound like villain's style. You obviously have a better read than I do, but against the described opponent I'm less than thrilled about putting my stack in with 2pTK here.

abcjnich · #3 08-24-2007, 03:55 PM

It doesn't really matter if I have an 8 or T or even 66. It's balancing the facts that he hasn't shown both a slowplayed hand and a bluff, and theres no hand that he could have that hit the flop and improved on the turn.

jakeduke · #4 08-24-2007, 06:11 PM

If I'm gonna pick between having this be his first bluff or his first slowplay I think I'm gonna pick slowplay. Isn't this just a guessing game though? I mean, you can do some math to figure out how often you need this to work, but that could be tough since you basically have no idea what kind of hand he's doing it with.

Keep in mind though, if he's semibluffing here with, say, OESFDs, NFD + a gutshot (or a pair), or GS + FD, you're giving him proper odds to call the push. I just think your play assumes he's got complete air here a ton, and I don't think you have the proper read on your opponent to assume that.

creedofhubris · #5 08-24-2007, 08:13 PM

If you think he's on a semi-bluff or a bluff, then call raise, call non-flush river?

vodoo · #6 08-25-2007, 06:07 AM

you are playing the tightest nit on earth and you really think he is (semi-) bluffing?

I dont really think this is a bluff here.

He might have A10, i assume he would have raise JJ pre-flop?

imfatandugly · #7 08-25-2007, 09:17 PM

against an unknown I like this more, for this guy...if its bad...its not really bad. You have a good chance of folding all Tx hands and are sticking your money in with the best of it when he does have a big draw. Even if he does have a random two pair you have 3-5 outs.

IronFly · #8 08-26-2007, 09:46 AM

does he fold to flop c-bets frequently?

I agree with jake's thoughts so far.

augie_ · #9 08-26-2007, 10:42 AM

i like the bet on the turn, and i like folding to the raise

abcjnich · #10 08-26-2007, 02:39 PM

He called and showed 5d5c. I was kinda exactly right on my read: he didn't have an overpair or better (on the flop) because he would have raised the flop, he didn't have a T because he would have just called on the turn.

I just forgot about him floating the flop and turning a 2 outer- which just happens to be quite deceptive. Actually kinda a 1 outer because I'm def not stacking if the 5h is the turn.