how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?

[imfatandugly]

I'm taking 45 percent of my friends action in the wsoop in the200, 215 rebuy, 500 and1000 Holden events for 50 percent of the buyins. I realize that the probability he does cash is 1- .9 to the fourth but that doesnt give the answer to what im looking for obv.

[jay_shark]

It depends on what you think his average profit will be if the buy-in is $x .

If the total buy-in is x , of which you will contribute $x/2 , then you need to assure yourself that his average profit will be :

average profit*0.45>= x/2
average profit = 10/9*x .

So if the buy-in is $215 , then you need to assure yourself that his average profit will be 215*10/9 = 238.88 .

Is your friend that good ?

[Siegmund]

I think it's a pretty raw deal for you, unless your partner is a spectacularly good player. In one sense you are "just doing 10% worse than he is", but in another sense, you are a lot more likely to lose and less likely to win than he is.

To keep the numbers easy, let's pretend for the moment that you're backing him in $11 10-seat SnGs.

Suppose your friend is finishing in each place 10% of the time - that is, breaking even on the prize pool but losing money to the rake. If he plays 10 tourneys, you and he pay $110 ($55 each) in entries. He collects a total of $100 in prizes. He breaks even, pocketing $55, and you lose $10.

If your friend does 10% better than that - ITM 33% instead of 30% of the time - he will collect on average $110, which in the usual sense makes him a "break-even player" -- but will, under your arrangement, result in him making a $5.50 profit and you taking a $5.50 loss.

He has to collect on average $122.22 before your expected share of the winnings comes to $55 (and he pockets ALL the profit.)

There are players good enough to average $130 or $140 back on $11 SnGs. Suppose your friend is such a player, and you expect to split $140 - $77 to him, $63 to you. Your friend made $22, you made $8. Are you satisfied with a deal that will result in your friend making three times as much money as you do in the long run? Were you aware that that "10% difference" you agreed to was, in effect, an agreement to split profits 75-25-ish?

I think the deal you MEANT to offer your friend was "I will cover 50% of your losses and take 45% of your profits" - which is a LOT different from covering 50% of his entry fees and taking 45% of his winnings.

[imfatandugly]

If he cashes for 430 on the first $215 tournament, I get .45*430.
So not just the profits. Its not a bad deal at all... If he has an ROI of 10%(?) i'll break even.