meh river

[aargh57]

Actually I think this should be a c/f here. I'm just thinking of what he will 3 bet with and call the flop and turn that you can profitably c/c here. AJ,KQ,QJ? Well, maybe it's close to a c/c and in truth I probably due it but I'm thinking he's checking those very often anyway.

[Oink]

I agree that c/f might very well be better than c/c

Which is why I like betting as it prevents you from c/f the best hand. This guy is gonna bet QJ, KQ with non zero probability and when he does betting blocks that bluff

[aargh57]

OK, Oink, that's why I suck. I never get the idea of a blocking bet and so I get beat in these situations.

[Oink]

I suck as well. I dunno whats best here.

To be honest I prolly c/c as well in the heat of the moment

[frenchpignouf]

c/f is bad imo. He don't bluff often but he don't vb often too. We don't have many informations but he looks agressive. We can give him a fair range imo with Ax x>5, 33+ (maybe he raises 22 and 33 maybe not so I just count 33) and KQ, KJ, QJ (maybe he plays some TX but he would have raise). So on the river he's betting 66 55 44 33 (88 raises very often on the turn). He's betting maybe A9 and AK but he would have give quite often some action with these hands on the flop or the turn, so I just count A9. So he's betting the river with 30 hands. He can bluff with KQ KJ QJ 40 hands, so if he bluffs just 10 % of the time with these hands, it is an easy call. I don't know, but I would say the real prob is little more than 10%.


Felicitations Nina for moving up.

[frenchpignouf]

It's tough for many people to fold Ace high on the river with ace high. AJ, A6, A5 call quite often (A8 is unlikely given the action). The value of gain a bet from a worst hand >> the value of inducing a bluff.

He don't raise very often the river the only hand is 44 or a slowplay with trips or set, but it is bad to slowplay against a pf cap. So probably b/c>b/f, (if he raises bluf the river 1% of the time it's enough imo).