A hand against our very own Jurullo

Dave D · #1 08-14-2007, 04:17 PM

Ok so I know that normally the rule is 100+ buy ins, but because this hand is against a HSMTT regular I felt it was more appropriate to post here. If it's no good, go ahead and move it. My sn on stars is daved123, and Jurollo is WPThero right?

We're in the 50k Guaranteed. How's my line? The truth is that I'm just not used to playing good players, and my river push just seemed right given that I think he's calling with any pair and that there's no way he's calling a standard value bet for half of my stack that I would make against a normal tourneydonk. He's too start for that, and would see through such a bet, so I thought I would go for the push and hope he thinks its a steal/bluff.

On the turn I thought it would be best to check and show weakness and hopefully induce an attempt at a steal. Obviously I don't mind giving free cards, and thought I would give Justin a chance to catch up. Namely I'm thinking that he's thinking: "ok he standard raised PF, standard c-bet flop (although it's a little strong, so maybe he missed it and is trying to buy it), and now he just gave up on the turn."

I'm not sure if Jurullo knows who I am in this hand. Because a broad called me on the phone and I couldn't make her go away, I've played pretty tight (although also I really just didn't get many hands).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t6782)
MP2 (t23990)
MP3 (t13865)
CO (t15475)
Button (t12330)
SB (t5115)
BB (t3825)
UTG (t30277)
UTG+1 (t8070)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t900, 2 folds, CO calls t900, 3 folds.

Flop: (t2000) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t1500, CO calls t1500.

Turn: (t5000) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (t5000) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t4357 (All-In), .

Final Pot: t643

EverettKings · #2 08-14-2007, 04:22 PM

Looks fine. Nothing too complicated here.

KneeCo · #3 08-14-2007, 04:29 PM

If you were somewhat deeper I wouldn't like the turn check, but since a bet commits him and you can shove the river if he checks behind I think it's fine.

The only part of this that made me cringe is when you said you'd bet 1/2 pot on the river vs. an unknown villain instead of pushing.

EverettKings · #4 08-14-2007, 04:34 PM

AAAAAAAActually I think I like a 2k river donk, against everyone.

I just rethought this. If you shove the river, Jurollo really cannot put you on a bluff. It's actually pretty easy to put you on an ace given how the hand played.

If you bet anything, he really cant call with JJ or worse. If you bet the full 4700, theres a good chance he folds a Queen. But if you bet 2k... he really HAS to pay off. Also, if you bet 2k and he has an ace, he really has to shove the rest of the chips in since you 'probably' have a queen.

The only question is, how often does he call a push versus 2k with a queen? That's what it comes down to. Personally I think he calls 2k almost 100% of the time and calls 4700 like 20%. Kinda hard to pick something like that. Depends on how Jurollo sees you, but I know that I, with a queen there, will rarely call it off.

Dave D · #5 08-14-2007, 04:44 PM

Yeah, I didn't mention this, but I also thought there was a good chance he has an A there (the call PF of an early PF raiser, the call on the flop floatament). If he has an ace, he should call basically 100% of the time. The river push also looks like "lol I have an ace, we're splitting at worst, might as well push." Also, I don't know if he knows me.

Also, a river shove doesn't look like a bluff? We both checked through turn, I could easily be thinking "he checked through behind on the turn, he's weak, I can take this by shoving"?

And yeah, kneeco, my thinking is the same as Everett as far as normally betting out river 2k. Most donks will cry call there I think, but they won't call a push. It's purely for value I think.

tomek322 · #6 08-14-2007, 04:49 PM

what about making a weak blocking type bet on the turn, to induce a raise? 1/3 of the pot?

Stumpy · #7 08-14-2007, 04:51 PM

Dave,
There's one ace left in the deck. How good a chance can it be that he has it?

Also, which aces call the flop?
I don't think floating is a great move when your opponent has 1 < PSB left, is it?

Stumpy · #8 08-14-2007, 04:53 PM

Tomek, I think when you have 4.4k left in a 5k pot and you bet small, it looks strong, not weak.

KneeCo · #9 08-14-2007, 04:56 PM

If the plan isn't to push like any river if he checks behind, then I don't like checking the turn OOP (especially if we think the case A is a strong part of his range).

THEOSU · #10 08-14-2007, 05:15 PM

that ace was a really awful card for you. i mean, i love me some zeebowning, but i don't think justin's paying off with less than the case ace here. i think you just have to try to a little bit of value with what looks like a blocking bet and hope he makes a curiosity call. or, you know, a sick bluff raise.

also, the final pot of 643 seems awry.

edit to add: if he's got the case ace, the money's reasonably likely to get in no matter what bet you make.