FTP 50r. Pretty Deep. PF Decision Against AJKHoosier

[ZBTHorton]

The HH is not stored on my HD for some reason, but it's fairly simple.

Deep in the second hour of the FTP50r. We're down to 55 or so players, and I am above average with 14K. AJK has around 18K.

Blinds are 120/240/25

Action folds to the button(T6500) who raises 3x to 720. I r/r to 2400 with AQo. AJK barely thinks and shoves for 18K. Button folds. Hero?

No real reads per this tournament. Obviously I know he's a very solid player. We haven't played together a ton, but he has to at least know who I am...that I am capable of re-stealing..etc.

[DOTTT]

I don't think he's ever making a move here. His range is something like 88-AA, AK,AQ . Against that range you have 36% equity. If you think AJ is in his range then this is a call, but if it's not I'd fold.

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's ever making a move here. His range is something like 88-AA, AK,AQ . Against that range you have 36% equity. If you think AJ is in his range then this is a call, but if it's not I'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to add anything else, except this.

You don't think if he has AA/KK/QQ here, that he stops to think about what he wants to do here? Also. What if he has a marginal hand like AJ or 88? The fact that he hardly thought at all just seemed very suspicious to me.

[fsoyars]

If you're implying that he's re-restealing here I think that's wishful thinking. Given your stack size he has no reason to think you're restealing light and given his stack size he's not re-restealing. I don't even think he's shoving AQ or 99 here. This looks like a clear fold.

[Bond18]

I think i'm folding. AJK is a thinking aggro player, but very very few people jam here as a play. In fact, in all my MTT's i've never caught anyone or seen anyone get caught doing this, though i did see a 2p2'er do it once in a HH. It's certainly a strong play, but a tough one to pull off.

Also, i don't really think AJ is in his range. Assuming you don't think he's on a move.

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think i'm folding. AJK is a thinking aggro player, but very very few people jam here as a play. In fact, in all my MTT's i've never caught anyone or seen anyone get caught doing this, though i did see a 2p2'er do it once in a HH. It's certainly a strong play, but a tough one to pull off.

Also, i don't really think AJ is in his range. Assuming you don't think he's on a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ can never be in his "range" because he should never have a "range" in this situation, either you think he's pulling a move often enough % of the time or not.

He either has QQ+, AK and is not pulling a move, or he has pretty much anything and he is pulling a move, so you weight his "range" based on that, there is no AJ here because he never shoves AJ for value.

[celticslegend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think i'm folding. AJK is a thinking aggro player, but very very few people jam here as a play. In fact, in all my MTT's i've never caught anyone or seen anyone get caught doing this, though i did see a 2p2'er do it once in a HH. It's certainly a strong play, but a tough one to pull off.

Also, i don't really think AJ is in his range. Assuming you don't think he's on a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ can never be in his "range" because he should never have a "range" in this situation, either you think he's pulling a move often enough % of the time or not.

He either has QQ+, AK and is not pulling a move, or he has pretty much anything and he is pulling a move, so you weight his "range" based on that, there is no AJ here because he never shoves AJ for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with pretty much all of this, except I think that since this is a button, SB, BB situation AJK's range for shoving for value is more like 1010+ AK, maybe AQ. QQ+ and AK is too tight IMO.

[Bakes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's ever making a move here. His range is something like 88-AA, AK,AQ . Against that range you have 36% equity. If you think AJ is in his range then this is a call, but if it's not I'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to add anything else, except this.

You don't think if he has AA/KK/QQ here, that he stops to think about what he wants to do here? Also. What if he has a marginal hand like AJ or 88? The fact that he hardly thought at all just seemed very suspicious to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a far more likely scenario is that he has a big hand, saw it among his 8 tables, and watched the action trail around to the button, who raises. Then he's all like [censored] yeah button raise! Then you reraise and he's like OMG CHRISTMAS IN SEPTEMBER and nuts all over the keyboard when he sticks it in.

Or its just AK cuz I see a lot of autoshipping with that particular hand either way your [censored] imo.

[adanthar]

this is AJKHoosier, not lilholdem.

[ZJ123]

AJKHoosier is not that LAG and is pretty good, i don't expect him ever to be making a move here. Fold.

And Bakes what are you talking about? lol Hes a pretty cool guy.