Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

[MitchL]

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Mitch -- we're getting 9:1 to call the river, which means we have to be chopping, what, over 20% of the time. And after we call her turn raise, I just don't imagine her firing again on the river very often with a naked Q (no flush, no KQ, no boat). That river pairing scares every live player.

Now I'm not saying calling is bad, I'm just saying folding is probably better or at least as good, so the comment "anything other than calling is terrible" sounds a bit specious.

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I didnt mean it to say folding was terrible, I thought he thinking of betting. I also believe pf is close but I would probably call in a 2/3 5handed. Also we have given no indication that we have a big hand. We just donked the flop and called a turn raise. I dont know maybe someone should stove it, but I think she can have AsQx and still bet the river. Also, someone said to reflect on your image. This is important. If she is so scared/passive that she neglects to bet the river against anyone then it is probably a fold. I.e. She should not really fear your hand if you are checking to her. Some even passive players will recognize that you would never check raise here so she has an easy bet with a big range. If she is type who clams up on every scary river card against all opposition then it is clear check/fold. In my experience these types don't usually play 5-handed, but you were there and probably know. Regardless if this is my first session playing with her she is getting looked up.

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Snow - I said plays a lot of hands, I didn't say raises a lot of hands. In fact I don't recall this player raising that much pre-flop in hindsight - should have mentioned that but since its not relevant to the hand on the turn/river I left it out. Although i really wanted to avoid the pre-flop discussion I think we can narrow his range down to TT+,AQs+,AKo, + some retarded spazzy play. In fact we could probably discount AA if we wanted to since he might be the type to "trap" with AA. I probably have plenty of equity vs this clown in a multi-way pot, the play is slim but its fine. Now lets stop talking about pre-flop because its a minor decision, the meat is later in the hand - focus on the tough part!

[MitchL]

Also as far as the turn goes, why would you anticipate a raise from her this often? If she is scared as you say then she should only be raising the turn with flushes, which she should not be flopping often at all. Her flop call should be a pretty wide range, but what we are mostly betting for is for value and protection against the A or Ks as well as 2 pair/scared sets, etc. So, i.e. we are getting value out of more of her range than the times she is slowplaying a monster. All in all, if you know her well enough to fold the river then you should know her well enough to know if her slowplay range includes all flushes, or just nut flushes, i.e. does she pound the flop with all small flushes or does she slowplay all flushes if it is the former than I think we can fold on the turn confident we are drawing dead. If you dont know her well enough to say definitively I say get to showdown.

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Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

[*TT*]

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Also as far as the turn goes, why would you anticipate a raise from her this often? If she is scared as you say then she should only be raising the turn with flushes, which she should not be flopping often at all. Her flop call should be a pretty wide range, but what we are mostly betting for is for value and protection against the A or Ks as well as 2 pair/scared sets, etc. So, i.e. we are getting value out of more of her range than the times she is slowplaying a monster. All in all, if you know her well enough to fold the river then you should know her well enough to know if her slowplay range includes all flushes, or just nut flushes, i.e. does she pound the flop with all small flushes or does she slowplay all flushes if it is the former than I think we can fold on the turn confident we are drawing dead. If you dont know her well enough to say definitively I say get to showdown.

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I dont know how she would play a flopped flush out of position with 3 players left to act, it was the only monotone board that I recall at this point. We would of course pump it, but she is the average SSHE type who is more solid than most but probably doesn't have the level of understanding to know she has to protect her hand. Perhaps she sees a monster and wants to keep everyone in with a small flush - a mistake of course but rather common from weak post-flop tags. I'm just taking stabs in the dark here, I really don't know.

[MitchL]

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Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

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Hmm, I missed that. It could be alot of bad queens or obviously suited junk. She might have a pair and a Q also. It sucks if she bets the river, but honestly I dont think our read is good enough to fold. Our hand is not defined very well to her. I have been accused of making too many "big lay downs," so I am not one of these call all river bet types, but I just cant find a fold here. Maybe its a leak of mine, but Ive seen some weird stuff from players I thought I had pegged.

[*TT*]

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Mitch - my image was solid in her eyes, but recently I had been batted around. She is also kind of passive on the river, missing lots of value bets with top pair hands, but this is a different situation if she holds a Q. Question is what hands contain a Q and can call a flop bet with players left to act on this board? Remember she was ready to dump the hand then changed her mind, it was plainly obvious that this was the case.

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Hmm, I missed that. It could be alot of bad queens or obviously suited junk. She might have a pair and a Q also. It sucks if she bets the river, but honestly I dont think our read is good enough to fold. Our hand is not defined very well to her. I have been accused of making too many "big lay downs," so I am not one of these call all river bet types, but I just cant find a fold here. Maybe its a leak of mine, but Ive seen some weird stuff from players I thought I had pegged.

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Can you think of any pair + Q hands she would call on the flop? I can't - thats what makes the hand so tough, even QJ or 65 is likely to raise the flop on a monotone board.

for what its worth I think i mangled the hand on the turn, I think the non-traditional line of check/call and re-evaluate the river is best in this rare situation even though it feels like fancy play, I cant think of a single hand that calls the flop in bad position by the BB which isn't intending to raise the turn. Yet at the same time I am not convinced thats the best line.

[MitchL]

I think you are being results oriented about the turn. The thought was obviously in your head when you bet the turn and the raise confirmed your suspicions but I think you need to bet against a range this wide. She can have a Ks or an As on the flop or a scared 2 pair etc. It seems to me that you have a better read than what I would have thought possible after one session. If thats the case then this becomes an easy bet/call on turn and c/f on the river. I have just laid down too many winners or choppers to players I thought were super predictable after only playing a few hrs with them only (to my horror) to be proven otherwise.

[*TT*]

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I think you are being results oriented about the turn. The thought was obviously in your head when you bet the turn and the raise confirmed your suspicions but I think you need to bet against a range this wide. She can have a Ks or an As on the flop or a scared 2 pair etc. It seems to me that you have a better read than what I would have thought possible after one session. If thats the case then this becomes an easy bet/call on turn and c/f on the river. I have just laid down too many winners or choppers to players I thought were super predictable after only playing a few hrs with them only (to my horror) to be proven otherwise.

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you don't think she is raising As on the flop? I think thats within her range. Ks is the only card I can imagine calling the flop, but she isn't nearly mucking it unless the Ks has a matching baby suited card so thats ruled out too.

PS; sorry I am posting so much in my own thread, this is a good conversation between us so I cant help myself. And I am not being results oriented, it was a line I seriously considered during the hand.

[MitchL]

I dont think players who miss river value bets understand equity enough to be getting bets in on the flop. Also, why would she raise your bet on the flop and shut everyone out? I would play an As similarly. I will let some else chime in at this point, but if her flop calling range in this situation includes only monsters I would extremely surprised. What I meant by you being results oriented is that when she called the flop I am sure alarm bells went off in your head, but just because she raises the turn doesnt mean you should've checked the turn.