CONGRESS 2006 -- breaking together or braking separately?

[CharlieDontSurf]

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My hunch is that the tight races will break to the GOP. According to www.electoral-vote.com, the polls in the last couple days have been trending toward the GOP. They are now predicted to retain the Senate and there have been good polls for them in the House as well. The only close Senate race that the Dems are currently is in New Jersey and with the gay marriage decision I predict that will go to the GOP as well for 52 GOP senators. I would personally set the over under for number of Democratic seats in the House at this point at 222.

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Wait till Wends...the polling will start shifting back to Dems.

House goes to Dems
Senate stays with Rep by a 1 or 2 seat majority.

I think the two key factors will either be
1. The whole...Rep turnout machine may be a bit off this year due to many moderate or even conservative republicans being turned off by Iraq and Bush that they simply abstain from voting.

2. Strong turnout for Dems and Dems comes out ahead of reps when it comes to women and indep/moderate voters