Sunday Warmup bubble spot

[TwistedEcho]

Urgh only posting this because shaun told me to, don't think i've ever folding because its the bubble before.

Anyway managed to herocall off my stack to get to 1bb, with 2 people left to bust. Buyin is $215 first payout is $407. Lobby claims smallest stack is 980 and 5 people have less chips than me.

Seat 1: TwistedEcho (2348 in chips)
Seat 2: metzmich (129974 in chips)
Seat 3: mooro (36066 in chips)
Seat 4: SmartFAB (30024 in chips)
Seat 5: Prento (12600 in chips)
Seat 6: FcMunky (22931 in chips)
Seat 7: mandero (109981 in chips)
Seat 8: Sadgie (41480 in chips)
Seat 9: HoRRoR77 (47184 in chips)
TwistedEcho: posts the ante 300
metzmich: posts the ante 300
mooro: posts the ante 300
SmartFAB: posts the ante 300
Prento: posts the ante 300
FcMunky: posts the ante 300
mandero: posts the ante 300
Sadgie: posts the ante 300
HoRRoR77: posts the ante 300
FcMunky: posts small blind 1500
mandero: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TwistedEcho [Ad Kh]
Sadgie: folds
HoRRoR77: folds
TwistedEcho:

[KneeCo]

so there's actually 271 left and 270 pay? I guess it's a fold.

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
so there's actually 271 left and 270 pay? I guess it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

272 left

[Vetgirig]

If you want to get ITM - fold.

If you want to win - shove it.

PS Of course the chance to win is slim.

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to get ITM - fold.

If you want to win - shove it.

[/ QUOTE ]

great post, thanks.

[armen13]

Any idea how many if any of these 5 are hitting the BB before you? I know you don't play like this echo, but strictly for arguements sake will take a shot:
I will assume that if you win at any given point you will blind off untill bubble. There are a lot of possibilities, I am making simplifying assumptions to ease calc, I think most of the extreme scenarios cancel each other out.

ALL IN:

Assume 50% chance someone isolates with a top 25% hand.
If no one isolates you will likely you will get >=2 callers.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.082% 46.98% 01.10% 28311261 663614.33 { AKo }
Hand 1: 26.046% 25.11% 00.94% 15129642 566292.67 { random }
Hand 2: 25.872% 24.87% 01.00% 14987070 603864.67 { random }

=48.08%* ((2700 antes+(2348*3)=9744)=4685 cev
=48.08%*472$= 226.93$ ev

If someone isolates you, can assume 99+ AQ+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.652% 39.52% 09.13% 414180516 95654640.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 51.348% 42.22% 09.13% 442440252 95654640.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

=48.65*((2700 antes+2348*2+1500)=8896)=4328 cev
=48.65%*472= 229.62 $ ev


Total
(4685+4328)/2= 4506 cev
(229.62+226.93)/2= 228.27$ ev


FOLD:

If you fold and don't play until the big blind AND are still on the bubble, you will have a random hand vs more likely one opponent with top 25% of hands (blinds have not changed):

Assume 85% someone isolates:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.407% 61.25% 01.16% 436794072644 8273447008.00 { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 37.593% 36.43% 01.16% 259833649340 8273447008.00 { random }

=37.59%*(2700 antes+(1438(effective)*3)=7014)=2636.56 cev
=37.59%*472 =177.42$ ev


15% no one isolates
If no one plays SB will have called since all in is less than SB:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 47.97% 02.03% 1334125369292 56565131908.00 { random }
Hand 1: 50.000% 47.97% 02.03% 1334125369292 56565131908.00 { random }

=50%* (2700 antes+(1438*2)=5576)=2788 cev
=50%*472= 236$ ev

Total
(85%*2636.56+ 15%*2788)=2659.27 cev
(85%*177.42+15%*236) = 186.2 $ ev



So looks like shove is correct, Shove is bad if the pot becomes 4 way, then % win is closer to 35% and ev becomes around 165$. I excluded that as I think it might cancel out with SB folding and other weird things like half your table getting disconnected etc. Also, if answer to first question is that two poeople likely to go out, before your BB then the whole calc needs to be changed.

P.S. Please point out and ridicule if any of this math is wrong. Also I have made a lot of assumptions here pelase point out if unreasonable.

[Vetgirig]

[ QUOTE ]

FOLD:

If you fold and don't play until the big blind <font color="red"> AND are still on the bubble, </font>

...
P.S. Please point out and ridicule if any of this math is wrong. Also I have made a lot of assumptions here pelase point out if unreasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You won't be on the bubble anymore since we have 271 players that will play hands. On average 1 in 220 will get AA and 1 in 220 get KK . Add to that all that get AK and QQ/JJ - many players will get hands they really want to play - and some of them will go bust.

So what you need to do is assign that a chance - say 98% we make the bubble and 2 % we get to BB without the bubble breaking.

So FOLD is like 2% we get $186 and 98% we get $472.

So total fold is like $470 which are way more that the $228
for playing the hand.

Recalculate and you will see that the only hand maybe playable are AA - and I am not even sure about that one...

Its a very easy fold to get ITM.

[shaundeeb]

I thought this was a clear call for your stack since you are UTG+1 if he was later pos I think a fold is fine.

[NoahSD]

Nah... 2 people out of 272 are definitely busting in the next two hands.

[armen13]

[ QUOTE ]
Nah... 2 people out of 272 are definitely busting in the next two hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok bad assumption on my part so forget above....