Sunday Warmup bubble spot

[NoahSD]

Gotta be a fold. Really don't think it's close at all.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta be a fold. Really don't think it's close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto

[Vetgirig]

[ QUOTE ]

FOLD:

If you fold and don't play until the big blind <font color="red"> AND are still on the bubble, </font>

...
P.S. Please point out and ridicule if any of this math is wrong. Also I have made a lot of assumptions here pelase point out if unreasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You won't be on the bubble anymore since we have 271 players that will play hands. On average 1 in 220 will get AA and 1 in 220 get KK . Add to that all that get AK and QQ/JJ - many players will get hands they really want to play - and some of them will go bust.

So what you need to do is assign that a chance - say 98% we make the bubble and 2 % we get to BB without the bubble breaking.

So FOLD is like 2% we get $186 and 98% we get $472.

So total fold is like $470 which are way more that the $228
for playing the hand.

Recalculate and you will see that the only hand maybe playable are AA - and I am not even sure about that one...

Its a very easy fold to get ITM.

[shaundeeb]

I thought this was a clear call for your stack since you are UTG+1 if he was later pos I think a fold is fine.

[NoahSD]

Nah... 2 people out of 272 are definitely busting in the next two hands.

[armen13]

[ QUOTE ]
Nah... 2 people out of 272 are definitely busting in the next two hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok bad assumption on my part so forget above....

[Galwegian]

Just curious. For all those people who think this is a clear fold, how big does hero's stack have to be before it becomes a clear push?

(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[Tackleberry]

If my stack would be something around 1/2 average I would push.

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Look at the other posts (NoahSD, Vetgirig, ...) - we´re not only looking at the shortstacks, especially the mid-stacks (slightly below average) are eager to double up and somebody (not being shortstacked) may bust with a good hand against an even better hand.

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
If my stack would be something around 1/2 average I would push.

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Look at the other posts (NoahSD, Vetgirig, ...) - we´re not only looking at the shortstacks, especially the mid-stacks (slightly below average) are eager to double up and somebody (not being shortstacked) may bust with a good hand against an even better hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I realise that there is more than just the shortstacks to consider. However, given that play is presumably hand by hand at this stage and that the hero only has 2 more hands before being forced in blind, I think that the overwhelmingly decisive factor here is whether or not at least two of the other short stacks will be forced in blind before he is. Surely it is optimistic to think that two medium stacks will bust out in the next 2 hands. If all the other shorter stacks are in later position, he has to call here as it is very unlikely that he will get a better hand in the next two. If he was in late position then it would clearly be a fold, but in ep I think its close

[blankoblanco]

what if we were the lowest stack and the next lowest stacks were three players between 9-12k? shove or fold?