Hurricane predictions miss the mark

[adios]

Hurricane predictions miss the mark

Looks like Gray (oil company tool) and those using climate models did a crappy job. Maybe wacki can provide a link to someone who got close:

Why do they bother? And given the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?

''The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.

''The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts,'' he said.

The numbers provide abundant support for those statements.

Just before the season started on June 1, the nationally prominent Gray-Klotzbach team at Colorado State University predicted that 17 named storms would grow into nine hurricanes, five of which would be particularly intense, with winds above 110 mph.

A different team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five intense hurricanes.

The actual results for the 2007 season: 14 named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes.

[ConstantineX]

Nothing to see here.

[AlexM]

There were actually a lot more, but the oil companies hid the information.

[adios]

Some people claim that climate models predict hurricanes accurately on this forum.

[vhawk01]

Holy cow they were way off...??? Whats the variance on these? They were off by like 2? I dont get it.

[ConstantineX]

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Some people claim that climate models predict hurricanes accurately on this forum.

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Never heard that phrased used sarcastically?

[fmxda]

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Holy cow they were way off...??? Whats the variance on these? They were off by like 2? I dont get it.

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Yea what exactly is the variation in hurricanes year-to-year and what is the error in the projections... I don't expect a MSM newspaper to have a good grasp of basic statistics

[vulturesrow]

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There were actually a lot more, but the oil companies hid the information.

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Pretty sure it was the Council on Foreign Relations.