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  #1  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:02 PM
RudeboyOi RudeboyOi is offline
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Default is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

cause i pass the 7 and 10 and 11 mark

same goes for -11.5/-12.5
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  #2  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:18 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Assuming we are talking about the NFL here, the 11 is a fairly uncommon number and gaining the 6 is much better, though still not +EV.
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  #3  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:31 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.
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Old 11-27-2007, 03:15 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but games that have a line of -6.5 will have a higher distribution of 10 and 11pt games than games that have a line of -2.5
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  #5  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:29 PM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.

Where do you people get your information?

FWIW In GENERAL don't tease these, a straight bet or some other bet is going to offer more +EV. There are times to teaser them particularly if you need additional legs in teasers to round robin or w/e, but in GENERAL, don't.
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  #6  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

uh, where do you get your information? I was speaking with no knowledge of facts - just an understanding of mathematical distributions. I'd be eager to look at a graph using real data points.

kyro,

You are, of course, correct.
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  #7  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
Performify Performify is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ
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  #8  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:40 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

ty
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  #9  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:41 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right.
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  #10  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:50 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...equencies.html
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