Two Plus Two Newer Archives is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
11-27-2007, 02:02 PM
 RudeboyOi Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 494
is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

cause i pass the 7 and 10 and 11 mark

same goes for -11.5/-12.5
#2
11-27-2007, 02:18 PM
 hedgie43 Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Rugby Heaven Posts: 382
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Assuming we are talking about the NFL here, the 11 is a fairly uncommon number and gaining the 6 is much better, though still not +EV.
#3
11-27-2007, 02:31 PM
 CardSharpCook Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: kingputtlv Posts: 7,328
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.
#4
11-27-2007, 03:15 PM
 kyro Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Melting Sabrina Posts: 24,320
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but games that have a line of -6.5 will have a higher distribution of 10 and 11pt games than games that have a line of -2.5
#5
11-27-2007, 03:29 PM
 WarDekar Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,410
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.

Where do you people get your information?

FWIW In GENERAL don't tease these, a straight bet or some other bet is going to offer more +EV. There are times to teaser them particularly if you need additional legs in teasers to round robin or w/e, but in GENERAL, don't.
#6
11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
 CardSharpCook Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: kingputtlv Posts: 7,328
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

uh, where do you get your information? I was speaking with no knowledge of facts - just an understanding of mathematical distributions. I'd be eager to look at a graph using real data points.

kyro,

You are, of course, correct.
#7
11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ
#8
11-27-2007, 03:40 PM
 CardSharpCook Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: kingputtlv Posts: 7,328
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

ty
#9
11-27-2007, 03:41 PM
 kyro Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Melting Sabrina Posts: 24,320
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right.
#10
11-27-2007, 03:50 PM
 hedgie43 Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Rugby Heaven Posts: 382
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Special Sklansky Forum     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     Test General Poker Discussion     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory     Poker Legislation Coaching/Training     Stoxpoker.com     DeucesCracked.com German Forums     Poker Allgemein: Poker in general     Strategie: Holdem NL cash [German]     Strategie: Sonstige     Internet/Online [German]     BBV [German]     Small Talk [German] French Forums     Forum Francophone     Strategie [French]     BBV [French] Limit Texas Hold'em     Texas Hold'em     High Stakes Limit     Medium Stakes Limit     Small Stakes Limit     Micro Stakes Limit     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded     Limit-->NL PL/NL Texas Hold'em     High Stakes     Medium Stakes     Small Stakes     Micro Stakes     Full Ring Tournament Poker     MTT Strategy     High Stakes MTT     MTT Community     STT Strategy     Tournament Circuit/WSOP Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Heads Up Poker     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Entertainment Betting     Money Making and Other Business Discussion Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Affiliates/RakeBack     Software     Poker Site Software, Skins, & Networks 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     BBV4Life Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Business, Finance, and Investing     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Health and Fitness     Student Life     Golf     Video Games     Puzzles and Other Games     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Bin Sponsored Support Forums     RakebackNetwork     RakeBackDepot     RakeReduction.com Rakeback     PokerSavvy

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:26 AM.