Two Plus Two Newer Archives is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
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#11
11-27-2007, 04:04 PM
 kyro Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Melting Sabrina Posts: 24,320
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

hedgie,

I almost included that link in my post too. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
#12
11-27-2007, 05:05 PM
 CardSharpCook Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: kingputtlv Posts: 7,328
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

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rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

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All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

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OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?
#13
11-27-2007, 05:14 PM
 WarDekar Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,410
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?

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Without actually looking at the data this is probably one of the worst teasers you can possibly make. If you have a +12 team or w/e, teasing up to 18 is an awful idea, you should be trying to either a.) Find a good price on +10.5 + or b.) Find derivative bets on that team such as 1H +7.5, other team under points, etc.
#14
11-27-2007, 05:32 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?

[/ QUOTE ]

Page 131 is postseason. You want regular season.

Look at Page 147, Regular Season Overall Margins of Victory.

3: 16.11%
7: 9.77%
10: 6.45%
6: 5.66%
14: 4.39%

If you want to see it graphically, look at page 82, overall margin of victory for regular season (Figure 5.1)
#15
11-27-2007, 05:36 PM
 WarDekar Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,410
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Uh, just so you guys know, I would NOT be using the numbers Performify gave as true push %s for those spreads.

It looks like for instance the 3 is counting 3 on both sides, and doesn't selectively look at games lined around 3.

Take it for what it is.
#16
11-27-2007, 05:43 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Correct, Ganchow's Push Frequencies post linked above are the push numbers.

The numbers I gave above are pure margin of victory for the NFL, which is what we were talking about here ("bell curve of final score margin of victory")

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