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Old 11-19-2007, 02:20 PM
Somnius Somnius is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Pole
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Default Re: AKs - nut flush draw + overcards on turn. How do you play it?

27.25/11 = 2.5:1 = 28%

9 outs (flush) + lets say your overcards are only good 2 thirds of the time 4 outs (overcards) = 13 outs = 25%ish chance of hitting on river...

Pot odds alone basically warrant a call...implied odds....

Not only could you call, but if you pushed here, he'd only have to fold like 3-5% of the time to make it profitable with your outs...if he calls only with a set, then it's a diff story, but if he'd call the push with KQ, even AK, would still leave you with 12 outs in either situation...

I'd generally call this, but depending on player and what he's doing, I'd sometimes push...calling also has the adv of putting you in position on the river against a potential turn bluffer...
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