Belmont Stakes

[Bishop22]

Not much reason to get excited about the Belmont but there is money to be made. The Belmont is almost always won by one of the top two horses or a bomb with a freak Tomlinson figure (e.g Birdstone). The pedigree horse this year is Deputy Glitters but his Tomlinson is <400 so that angle may not even be significant. I am thinking this year is going to be chalky, any rain at all could all but seal up a Bluegrass Cat/BnJ exacta (440/404 slop Tomlinsons respectively).

Bodog has a prop I like: Winner will pay <$27.80 -350. Based on the current Pinny lines there should be a scalp there if you wanted to go that route. I'd prefer to handicap the bombs and play it like a freeroll as I think there are more than a few throwouts among the contenders.

[ChipWrecked]

Thanks Bish, will you keep us updated?

[greg44]

are tomlinsons like beyer figures??

[Bishop22]

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are tomlinsons like beyer figures??

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Tomlinson's are pedigree figures in parentheses at the upper right of the past performance. They are listed for three seperate catagoires including distance and 'wet'. Usually if a bomb has a chance in this race they have a Tomlinson above 400 in the distance catagory but there is no horse in this race with such a figure.

Morning line maker really screwed up the prop arb by placing 3 horses at 15-1 and 1 at 12-1. You'd have to wait til race day to be sure to only bet the horses <13-1.

[greg44]

hmmm guess i still have a lot to learn... any good books for horse handicapping worth looking at?

[Sluss]

I was under the impression that deep closers do well at the Belmont. A horse like Jazil or Steppenwolfer that would be coming from way off the pace would be able to run up to a win or place instead of just hitting or just missing the board like they usually do. Without any top of the line horses in this field I wonder how the chalk will hold up to past years.

I was a big Jazil fan (jinx) until I heard his trainer say today that the owner wants him closer to the pace.

Has anyone seen Sunriver run this year? Is he really as good as the hype? The only Belmont races I bet are this weekend.

[Bishop22]

You don't need to be a deep closer to win the Belmont. The years the clunkers have one (most of whom had big Tomlinson numbers) it seemed to be more due to the lack of staying power by those closer to the pace. This year we have a few horses capable of getting the 12 furlongs done at a decent clip. Bluegrass Cat and BnJ are real solid but I think Steppenwolfer has a shot and will almost certainly hit the board. Sunriver is the unknown, if it wasn't for Pletcher being the trainer I would have thrown him out. Stretching 3 furlongs with a trash Tomlinson number against a decent field is no small feat but I've seen the miracles the medicine men have performed in the past. I would strongly disagree with anyone that thinks there is value at 4-1 but I am not quite ready to take a position against him at this point.

[playersare]

I found Sunriver last night at +600 and took that. still scalpable w/pin at +500 too. if BnJ goes higher than 7-1 I might consider that too.

[Bill C]

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I found Sunriver last night at +600 and took that. still scalpable w/pin at +500 too. if BnJ goes higher than 7-1 I might consider that too.

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This is a good bet IMO. He's in there with a big shot and will go off shorter than 6/1. I rate him as better than Bluegrass Cat, FWIW.

bill c

[Bill C]

Tomlinson turf numbers are nice, though I personally believe the wet numbers lag far behind the turf numbers, and the distance numbers are nearly useless.

And none of the numbers should ever be used to eliminate horses. Time and again, you will see superb grass horses with mediocre (or worse) turf numbers. The way numbers should be used is as an inclination in the direction the number suggests. To use turf numbers, as an example, I will only use them if it's the horse's first or second try on the grass, and only if I am getting 8/1 or more. I greatly prefer that there be only one set of top tomlinson numbers, say above 300, and also that there are no horses in the race that have established good turf form.

An application I just love is this: a maiden has poor dirt form, and has been running in maiden claiming races, and looking horrible; in fact the worse, the better! He now goes back to MSW and onto the turf for the first time and has a Tomlinson turf number of 300 or more. He MAY be just now getting to run on the surface he will love. He also may not run a jump, which is why you want good odds when you use these numbers.

The only thing I do resembling elimination is this: if the sire is a well known turf sire, (Cozzene, etc) and the horse has top turf numbers but has run at least twice on the grass with poor form, I will generally toss these, as if they were going to be good, they'd have shown something by now. And people will still be betting on the famous turf sire.

Frankly, I see no profitable way to use Tomlinson numbers on the Belmont Stakes.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c