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#1
11-15-2007, 03:45 PM
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400NL Argh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
Villain is 18/8/1.6 over 100 hands or so and more or less unknown.
Ongame Poker No Limit Hold'Em, $2/$4 (8 handed). SB ($394) BB ($339) UTG ($405) Villain/UTG+1 ($394) MP1 ($340) MP2 ($377) CO ($188) Hero/BTN ($465) Preflop: Hero is BTN with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG folds, Villain raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, Villain calls. Flop: ($86) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets $70, Villain calls. Turn: ($226) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) Villain bets $284 and is all-in. Hero? WTF? Up until this push on the turn, I figured Villain for a pair in the 99-KK range. I thought AK was less likely for obvious reasons, although clearly not impossible. Anyway, I’m left with two moves on the turn, but which one’s better? Does the fact I don’t have the Ac make a difference? 
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#2
11-15-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Call, preflop sucks.
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#3
11-15-2007, 03:58 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Call, preflop sucks. [/ QUOTE ] Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#4
11-15-2007, 04:19 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
PF sucked cos it was basically a min raise. His range to call a min raise is huge, and it includes SC's and small PP's, which could have u crushed at this point.
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#5
11-15-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something...
Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards...
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#6
11-15-2007, 05:48 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something... Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think your avg. villian goes broke with 99 here on a 2,7,8 flop when you minraise pre. If you minraise pre and are going to felt any flop and it only costs him $28 then he should call with anything he raises PF.
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#7
11-15-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something... Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards... [/ QUOTE ] Usually triple or quadruple their bet size. I think you're underestimating his raising range. 18/8 probably raises some small pocket pairs in EP. Suited connectors are less likely, but big suited cards are quite possible. 100 hands is not a very large sample, either. FWIW, I think you're toast on the turn, although smaller overpairs with one club could be in his range.
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#9
11-15-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
[ QUOTE ]
Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why... [/ QUOTE ] Your 3 bet is to small because it gives the villain a chance to call with a large range, in hopes he will stack you. Your 3 bet should have been somewhere between $60-$70
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#10
11-15-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
The preflop raise is a little small IMO also. However, that isn't the question you put out in this hand, so I want to focus on the original question...do you call in this spot?
I think this is a pretty easy and straightforward fold. We really don't beat much and have no chance to improve (only an Ah really helps us safely). What hands is a villain making this bet with... he's either betting big to protect his hand (a made small flush that he doesn't want you to draw against). Or is betting with a large amount of outs against us (around 13+ with a club draw and some pair/piece of the board). It is highly unlikely he would bet a pair here without at least having the club...and even the 2c is good enough. So even when we are ahead now, we can expect to lose 1 in 4. Because we can assume we are losing every time we are behind (due to the in ability to improve), we have to be good 2/3 of the time for this to be a break even bet. Me personally I think it is more accurate that we are behind 2/3 of the time here as opposed to ahead 2/3 of the time.
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