2 MLB Playoff Futures Plays

SunOfBeach · #1 10-05-2007, 07:18 AM

There's got to be +EV in Cleveland-128 over the Yankees, already up 1-0 and with Carmona yet to pitch and Sabathia coming for one more game if needed, and the general BSP Yankee situation.

Also, Arizona+525 to win the WS. Up 2-0, likely to play Colorado with Webb's grounders in Coors, the WS likely to be closer to 50/50 than most BSP's think, etc.

domer2 · #2 10-05-2007, 09:23 AM

Yep, true there is almost always value in betting against Yankees in the postseason.

Arizona, not so sure on that one. Just off the top of my head, -520 * -170 * +200 = +600 or thereabouts.

rsigley · #3 10-05-2007, 09:43 AM

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Also, Arizona+525 to win the WS. Up 2-0, likely to play Colorado with Webb's grounders in Coors, the WS likely to be closer to 50/50 than most BSP's think, etc.

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if the WS is closer to 50/50 (which i disagree with) wouldn't the best bet to bet the national league to win the world series since NL is 2 to 1 dog on nearly every book

SunOfBeach · #4 10-05-2007, 11:20 AM

Damned right it would be, and it was the bet I've really wanted to make for awhile. Sadly for me, it ain't up on the 3 books I'm using. I'm trying to back into it a bit this way, using the team (Dbacks) that I think has the value at the current numbers I can get.

bugstud · #5 10-05-2007, 02:18 PM

you arizona bet is bad. No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point.

paperchamp · #6 10-05-2007, 02:30 PM

Definitely some value up to about -140 for Cleveland.

Crusher19 · #7 10-05-2007, 02:50 PM

betting the yanks in a futures play cant be good they have by far the hardest road to the world series and are not off to a good start already.

SunOfBeach · #8 10-05-2007, 03:36 PM

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No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point.

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Again, I wish I could bet that line (but can't). No way that Arizona (all I'm interested in here, obviously) *should* be a 2-1 dog to any of the AL teams. Not unless all current sabermetric knowledge is wrong.

MrFeelNothin · #9 10-05-2007, 03:44 PM

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No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point.

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Again, I wish I could bet that line (but can't). No way that Arizona (all I'm interested in here, obviously) *should* be a 2-1 dog to any of the AL teams. Not unless all current sabermetric knowledge is wrong.

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What sabermetric knowledge supports Arizona being less than a 2-1 dog to the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians?

I would need at least +950 there.

Post-Oak · #10 10-05-2007, 04:25 PM

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What sabermetric knowledge supports Arizona being less than a 2-1 dog to the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians?

I would need at least +950 there.

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I agree.

AZ is +700 on SIA, and I still wouldn't touch that.

Col is also +700 on SIA, which IMO is a better bet if you are looking to go with the NL. It's also slightly arb-able (vs -669 on WSEX).