Need Old lines - I have a DVOA/NFL system that

[Webster]

Need Old lines - I have a DVOA system that is hitting 65% in 60 games ATS this year.

If you know what DVOA is you KNOW how sweet this could be!

I need previous year lines - I've back tested uip to two weeks ago and real bets the last 2!

[bills217]

Is this related to you old system and are you still posting those picks anywhere? I actually checked your blog a couple weeks back and couldn't find any.

[brendanb438]

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average System?

I am interested in what you have going so far.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this related to you old system and are you still posting those picks anywhere? I actually checked your blog a couple weeks back and couldn't find any

[/ QUOTE ]

He posts them on Wednesdays.

http://www.grinderswarehouse.com

[Webster]

bills - yes - olds system is still going 208-109 ATS on A and B games since 1992. 349-217 on all games.

Look on Wednesdays normally!

This year so-so so far - bad week last week! 7-8 :-(

I was going to post them here but I catch too much flak and disbelief!

brendanb - When I started looking into DVOA I knew there had to be something I could do with those numbers.

A friend of mine combined some Sagarin home field stuff and the Offense and Defense DVOA including DAVE.

I'm not claiming anything YET! but witht he algorithms I'm using when the Balderdash system (new name) is 5.5 points different then the line it's 11-2.

2.5 to 5 different it's 23-16.

WAY WAY not enough to say anything works, I know that! That is why I need past year numbers.

BTW - it is picking Indy as 5.5 difference. Balderdash is saying INDY wins by 1/2 point!

ALso

Minnesota and Jax cover with ease.

It's done pretty well predicting upsets!

I also tried going deeper and tried creating a over/under with zero success!

Bridgejumper since 1992
"C" 141-108
"B" 164-98

Buffalo +1 "B"**
Carolina +4 "C"
Jax +3.5 "B" **

Balderdash 2007 only
"C" 23-16
"A" 11-2

Jax +3.5 "A" **
Minnesota +7 "A"
Indianapolis +5 "A"
Tennessee -4 "C"
Atlanta -3.5 "C"
T.B. -3.5 "C"
Houston +3.5 "C"
Buffalo +1 "C"**
Green Bay +2 "C"

[MyTurn2Raise]

if you go back many years, check goldsheet.com
if you just need this year's closing lines, look at covers.com

[Webster]

Goldsheet - perfect - TY - I guess I know what I'll be doing at work today :-)

Correction on that link - just correcting it - not promoting!

Grinders Blog!

[Jazzy3113]

Your use of exclamation points makes me feel your blog has exciting implications for this weekend!

[Nostrawho?]

So I agree on almost all of the system's picks. It interests me, how exactly did you try to create an over/under system, same DVOA principles? I wouldn't think that the vital inputs would have been the same as in your side system. I've been trying to create one with no luck, other than your standard positive variance, which will soon leave me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Anyway, pretty sweet system you've got going there, good luck on the ~1000 play sample size.

[Webster]

Jazzy3113 - that "!" does bring excitement doesn't it! LOL NH

Nostrawho? I was trying to use for Offense and Defense DVOA numbers but it was not working at all.

As we all know - all systems fail! Every year I wait for Bridgejumper to go belly up and every year it chugs along.

My Linebreaker system for NCAA was SWEET for five years and then BAM!! total garbage!