A hand where I bet a lot

[gonores]

This is another hand from my maniacal phase. Let's talk about it.

Villian is new to my table. He has only played half an orbit without incident. However, he is an older white guy and a betting-line-nit, having questioned the table if everyone is following the rules about getting bets out over the betting line. He is clearly miserable. I think I might have played with him before, but I can't recall anything about him. I haven't done anything to suggest that I am maniac since he has sat down.

So I raise 9h9s in MP (actually, it was 9h8s, but let's leave the preflop out of it). He cold-calls me next in, and the blinds call too.

Flop comes QhJh5c

I bet, only villian calls

Turn is the Ah

I bet, villian raises, I call

River is the 3d

I bet...

Thoughts?

[Fianchetto]

Can't say I like it too much.

River bet seems to be just giving money away, I don't get it. He's not folding his two pair/flush/whatever hand he has, and you will get raised again quite often.

I'd probably check/call the turn too.

[rafiki]

yikes. check/fold or bet/fold the turn. What card are you hoping for on the river ?

The T doesn't help you and your gutshot, you've got the dummy end. The 9 for the flush, bah, not even a good flush, and certainly no price to call for it.

this is mass spewing.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
yikes. check/fold or bet/fold the turn. What card are you hoping for on the river ?

The T doesn't help you and your gutshot, you've got the dummy end. The 9 for the flush, bah, not even a good flush, and certainly no price to call for it.

this is mass spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is not good; a heart or 9 may give him the best hand (assuming he holds 9h9s), he needs to see the river. However, I agree there is still some spewage going on here.

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yikes. check/fold or bet/fold the turn. What card are you hoping for on the river ?

The T doesn't help you and your gutshot, you've got the dummy end. The 9 for the flush, bah, not even a good flush, and certainly no price to call for it.

this is mass spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is not good; a heart or 9 may give him the best hand (assuming he holds 9h9s), he needs to see the river. However, I agree there is still some spewage going on here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt that. Before you call his turn bet, you're getting 8 to 1. Which on paper sounds good, but you're not even getting 8 to 1 on a winning draw.

If we're doing an out counting exercise, there's just no way you can count 9 hearts and 2 two nine's as total clean outs.

[n.s.]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously doubt that. Before you call his turn bet, you're getting 8 to 1. Which on paper sounds good, but you're not even getting 8 to 1 on a winning draw.

If we're doing an out counting exercise, there's just no way you can count 9 hearts and 2 two nine's as total clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I agree that 11 outs is too optimistic, but we only need about 6 outs to make it correct to call the turn raise, and that's assuming that we never get paid off on the river when we are good.

In fact, with the A,Q, and J of hearts all already out there, I think our 9-high flush is going to be good a lot of the timne when it hits. The only hands we have to worry about are something like ThJx, or some KhJx, KhQx type of hands, and I dunno how often he is raising the turn with those. I think it's more likely that villain cold-called with some sort of suited broadway cards with no heart and he's now raising his two pair or straight.

As for the hand, I think the best line is probably to check-call the turn (or check-fold the turn) and check-fold the river. In my experience, these sorts of older nits tend never like folding a hand once they hit something, and especially not with 2 pair or better. That 3d is such a blank that I think you'll get looked up an awful lot.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not folding his two pair/flush/whatever hand he has,

[/ QUOTE ]

What flush do you put him on? He might have KhTh, but that makes a royal flush, and people NEVER make royal flushes! You make a royal flush once every 650,000 hands! I like my chances there!

What two pair hands (or set hands) can you put a miserable dude on here? He flat-called on a hyper-drawy flop. Miserable people LOVE to think in terms of pot odds and [censored], and they absolutely despise giving people proper odds to draw out on their strong hand.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not folding his two pair/flush/whatever hand he has,

[/ QUOTE ]

What flush do you put him on? He might have KhTh, but that makes a royal flush, and people NEVER make royal flushes! You make a royal flush once every 650,000 hands! I like my chances there!

What two pair hands (or set hands) can you put a miserable dude on here? He flat-called on a hyper-drawy flop. Miserable people LOVE to think in terms of pot odds and [censored], and they absolutely despise giving people proper odds to draw out on their strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a flush is unlikely, see my other post in this thread.

Two pair is the most likely hand for him, and as to why he wouldn't raise w/ it on the flop? I don't know. I don't know why miserable players do a lot of the things they do, but if he does have two pair sometimes he will have turned it with AJ, and many players will not raise middle pair on the flop. Or maybe he didn't want to lose his 'customers' in the blinds by raising the flop with a strong hand like a set of 5's.

Nit Alert: 650,000:1 is the odds to get a royal in 5 cards. It's much easier w/ 7 cards like in Hold'em. Around 30,000:1 , I believe.

[brick]

It is vegas and everyone loves to fold there. The problem is that folks usually have a bigger hand when they raise which makes me wonder if he would be able to fold. Folding a long Q is reasonable but I think he often have AQ or AJ here.

[rafiki]

Well what "Q" does he have ? His cold calling range is probably AQ, KQ, QJs, QTs. Buddy is going nowhere with pair and gutshot. Speeeeeew.