#1
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How do we figure the odds of making this runner/runner draw
Hero holds AA
Opponent holds T8 Flop: 79J On the turn I need to hit and Ace or have the board pair then I need the other outcome on the river (IE if and Ace hits the turn I need another ace on river or board to pair. If board pairs on the turn I need to hit same paired card to hit river or an ace.) It gets confusing for me because the number of outs change depending on which event occurs first. |
#2
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Re: How do we figure the odds of making this runner/runner draw
[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds AA Opponent holds T8 Flop: 79J On the turn I need to hit and Ace or have the board pair then I need the other outcome on the river (IE if and Ace hits the turn I need another ace on river or board to pair. If board pairs on the turn I need to hit same paired card to hit river or an ace.) It gets confusing for me because the number of outs change depending on which event occurs first. [/ QUOTE ] It's easiest to think of the 2-card combinations you need, and the number of ways to make each one. They are: A7 (2*3 = 6) A9 (2*3 = 6) AJ (2*3 = 6) AA (1) 77 (3) 99 (3) JJ (3) ======== total = 28 Total possible 2-card combinations with 45 cards remaining is C(45,2) = 45*44/2 = 990, and 27/990 =~ 2.8%. Since 990 is close to 1000, you can get an accurate result in your head just by counting the hands and moving the decimal point. Note that there are also 9 hands that tie (T8). |
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