Huge Value On THE TRIBE

Feltin Licter · #1 10-10-2007, 06:24 PM

Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series

WORD-LIFE

Mediocre_Player · #2 10-10-2007, 06:36 PM

Crock has Boston at 59.7%.

Thremp · #3 10-10-2007, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series

WORD-LIFE

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? NOT AT ALL.

Feltin Licter · #4 10-10-2007, 06:49 PM

I would bet Clev at +120 but luckily I have the Chowds buyin 160's

craig · #5 10-10-2007, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland at +160 is a huge play......This is very close to a pick em' for the series

WORD-LIFE

[/ QUOTE ]

From posters on here/SE and other sites and the media constantly mentioning how 'close' this series is, I am starting to think that this line might not be that off. Boston usually gets a lot of public money (probably up there with NYY for over priced lines), yet, for this series everyone is saying how close it is going to be. My first instinct (even as BOS homer), and from what I can tell stats wise, is that this series is pretty close, with the slight edge going to BOS.

My concern is that everyone seems to 'feel' the same. Why would the books price CLE at +160 if everybody appears to be betting CLE and acting as if the books are giving away money. I don't doubt the line is off, but maybe not as much as I originally thought. I think part of the reason everyone likes CLE so much is due to not only winning their series 3-1, but that it was against the NYY. NYY was very unlucky during that series and CLE caught a lot of breaks.

I don't doubt CLE talent. Behind BOS, they are my favorite team in MLB, but I think there might be a lot of smoke and mirrors from the LDS. A LDS that if the ball bounced differently in a just a couple of situations, we would be going to a game 5.

craig

Feltin Licter · #6 10-10-2007, 07:21 PM

I felt the same way when the NYY/CLev line came out. I actually bet less than I planned b/c the line seemed so wack.

I just don't see how +160 is anything but a huge buy...

craig · #7 10-10-2007, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I felt the same way when the NYY/CLev line came out. I actually bet less than I planned b/c the line seemed so wack.

I just don't see how +160 is anything but a huge buy...

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I am not saying that it isn't a 'huge buy'. My concern is that the public thinks so.

Also, was just flipping through BBTN and in the chapter, 'Why doesn't Billy Beane's [censored] work in the Playoffs?', and it seems that BOS would have an edge in areas that are correlated with winning in the playoffs.

craig

rja87 · #8 10-10-2007, 08:26 PM

The thing is, people are caught up in Cleveland beating the Yankees ( a very overrated team)..if they'd played anyone else in the LDS Boston would probably be considered a huge favorite. Now, I'm not saying Cleveland isn't a good team, but they have to win all 4 starts out of Sabathia and Carmona to win this for sure.

Thremp · #9 10-10-2007, 09:12 PM

This thread is so bad.

Yankees ~ BoSox >>> Indian > Angels

Bosox are significantly better than Indians. Please anyone who wants to give a Pap/Oka v Perez/Betan analysis since 1) It sucks 2) You live in fantasy land

rja,

You're terrible at this. Like your analysis doesn't have anything correct in it. From premises to conclusions. Atleast most people luck sack their way into one or the other. You manage to whiff on all. I will break it down.

1) Yankees being overrated: No. Best team in baseballs going forward.
2) Anyone else being a huge fave: They'd be a slightly bigger fave to the Angels and likely a shade ahead of Yanks due to some HFA.
3) have to win all 4 starts out of Sabathia/Carmona: Since there isn't at worst a 30% chance of Byrd or some other schmuck luck sacking their way into a win. Not to mention those two pitchers could see 5 starts between them...