Fold the Nuts?

[ChaseHigh]

This hypothetical situation was presented by Greg Weum to Mike Caro, and is available in his articles at www.poker1.com:

Suppose you are playing 10 handed 20/40 Limit and you hold 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button.

By the time the action gets to you, the betting has been capped, you call, and everyone calls behind you.

The flop comes:

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You have the nuts! But to your surprise, the betting has been capped and everyone has again called before you.

Thanks to your magical reading powers, you are 100% certain that your opponents have the following hands:

AA
KK
QQ
JJ
66
33
78(suited)
45(suited)
57(suited)

What do you do? Call or fold?

And just to make it interesting, what hand would you pick if you could exchange yours for anyone else's at the table?

[WWKMS]

78 has the most outs, but the 9 on the turn ends it. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Madman Madman]

Will I ran it in pokerstove and we have about 11.5% chance of winning so with all the other 9 players in this is a call. And 78 is best.

[ChaseHigh]

Ok, so our Nuts are really only about 11% - but still worth a call because of the enormous pot odds.

I'm trying to think of any situation where the nuts at any given point could actually be the underdog to a point of having to fold them.

This is the best situation I could imagine - anyone know of a situation where the correct play is to fold the nuts? Is that even possible?

[WWKMS]

this situation is never going to happen, it really is silly to ever talk about it because there is almost no realistic situation you fold the nuts (not counting satellites which is a totally different topic)

anyhow more to point, folding here is probably best...every card beats you on the turn except the case nine, and for you to win you have to hit runner-runner or your one-outter

take that for whatever it's worth, which really in this case of pointless speculation is nothing. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

This is the best situation I could imagine - anyone know of a situation where the correct play is to fold the nuts? Is that even possible?

[/ QUOTE ]
The nut hand can be an underdog. The ease of finding examples depends on how precisely you define the nuts.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2953958
Board: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.470
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.530

You might argue that the nut hand on that board is not just any straight, but 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Any other hand is an underdog to something.

In 3-way pots, the best made hand can be an underdog to two big draws.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2953979
Board: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.279
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.377
6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.344

You can also be an underdog if you are splitting with one hand, while another is drawing.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2953989
Board: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
As Ts 0.322
Ah Th 0.322
Kc Kd 0.357

[mce86]

I of course call and remain expressionless as the nine comes on the turn! BINGO!!

[tarheeljks]

even so this is not worth talking about

[WWKMS]

good thing the last two people repeated what i already said.

well played [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
even so this is not worth talking about

[/ QUOTE ]
Knowing the odds can help you to make better decisions. They determine how costly a semibluff is when you run into the nuts (although that might not be the worst hand to encounter), as well as how badly you might be behind in Omaha when you have the best made hand on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
there is almost no realistic situation you fold the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]
5-way limped pot. The flop was checked through.

Board: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: $50
You have T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. The small blind pushes for $800. 3 folds to you. Call or fold?

Similar situations have been discussed both in the SSNL and HSNL forums because they happen in real hands. To decide whether to call, it is important to know how far behind T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x you are whether you think it is worth talking about or not.

In another real hand, the hero flopped the nut straight on a two-tone board against a fish and a very tight player, with deep stacks. The very tight player's bets indicated that he had the nut straight, too. The fish indicated that he had two pair, a set, or a straight. Should the player knock out the fish, possibly getting free-rolled by a straight with the flush draw, or keep the fish in?