$2/$4 hand. Fold or Raise the Turn

[Utah]

I was 7-tabling stars last night in order to get the last couple hundred points for the $200 onecall gift certificate when this hand came up.

Table seems to be tight. Villain seems to be very solid over the 50-100 hands I have watched. However, it is hard to tell because of the multi-tabling

folded to villain 3 off the button who raises. I reraise on the button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

2 to the flop

10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks. I bet. Villain calls.

10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn

I bet and villain check-raises. I thought about it for a second and decided it was an easy 3-bet (with the intention of folding to a 4-bet or a river lead bet). However, I am not so sure now. I still think it is a 3-bet but it is close.

Do you like the turn 3-bet? Why or why not?

[Chino987]

ok if you check behind river UI

[ncskiier]

I normally go into call-down mode about here but I like your 3b/f idea. I would not fold to a river lead though because I think he is always leading the river after a turn c.r. Any reads or stats on villian?

[AlienBoy]

Why 3 bet? Do you think you have *any* fold equity here?

In fact, Why even bet? What does he call with that you beat? Are you willing to fold to a check raise? If villain is strong, his flop call could mean you are already crushed, and he's planning a c/r on the turn. Or he's drawing to the nut flush.

If you bet the turn, can you fold to a c/r - you don't have odds for your 2 or at most 4 outs.

If you bet the turn, you might be charging a draw, but you might also be betting into a crushing hand.

And 3 bet is spew IMO.

I bet the turn here sometimes, and check behind others. I never ever 3 bet. If raised, I probably call, and then call river UI - and I'm not even sure I like that line.



AB

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Why 3 bet? Do you think you have *any* fold equity here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think there is some fold equity. However, I think it is more likely that I am simply ahead and he is on a semi-bluff and I am going to charge him for it.

Here was my thinking:

The turn 10 was very unlikely to help him because he would not have played the hand in a way that makes it likely he has a 10. His range:

AA-QQ no club I think he leads the flop or check-raises the flop as he doesn't want to give me a free shot at a flush.
A,10 no club He is most likely going to get a flop bet in
10, anything else He is too unlikely to have, given he raised preflop and I haven't seen him raise with a J,10 type hand
Any flush Possible but a bit unlikely for 2 reasons. 1 - we are heads up. 2 - there is a chance he would have simply led his flush on the flop to disguise it heads up.
AA-QQ with a clubThis what I am most worried about and somewhat likely given his line of play.
2 big cards with a flush draw His most likely holding I believe.
bluff cards Unlikely, but he could have a small pair.

Now, what does he put me on? Well, given my play in the game so far, he puts me on a pair or big cards. a 10 is unlikely for me to have. Given that I am solid, he should know that I can lay down. The 10 on the turn is a great card to check-raise semibluff with as he knows that I have to worry about 3 10s or a flush.

Therefore, given the way the hand played and given the community cards, I figured there was a very high chance he was semibluffing or outright bluffing and the best defense against a semi-bluff is to 3-bet and charge him for it. Also, it is possible, given he is a good player, that he could lay down a hand like JJ or QQ.

The river blanked. He checked and I checked. He flipped over K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and my nines are good.

I think my read was good and the result was certainly favorable. However, I think that I may have over thought the hand and that this is a simple laydown. Against a weaker player I would have laid it down or maybe even have checked the turn.

[Chino987]

why would you fold a turn CR heads up? you're setting yourself up for bluff city. are you folding to turn CRs on every paired board and every scare card?

[jgca]

Seems like a good example of where multi-tabling sacrifices per-hand expectation. In general, I think folding this turn c/r is a really good idea against a player with anywhere near normal numbers who I don't particularly read as trying to run over me in particular.

What are you sometimes leading? A high club, maybe also pairing the board or with a wheel draw.

This pot is not ginormous. You don't have odds to call even if you're always up against a flush, let alone trips. The way I read it, you're usually behind with probably 2 and maybe 4 outs, way below proper calling odds on this 7.5 bb pot, and when you're ahead opponent has 11 or 13 outs. That situation suxx with 2 exes. Turn 3-bet, free showdown or fold seems better than a calldown, but the turn fold seems vastly superior.

When you're playing 7 tables, I guess you need to "keep people honest" more than I do playing <=3, but this hand seems like a pretty big cost for that function.

[jgca]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you fold a turn CR heads up? you're setting yourself up for bluff city. are you folding to turn CRs on every paired board and every scare card?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. Often opponent will have the weak draws when I'm ahead and I'll have the strong draws when I'm behind. Here it's very much the opposite. Plus, often the pot will be bigger. Here, Utah's read turned out right and he charged a 13-outer. That is a lot less profitable than charging a 4-outer.