5/10 7hi OOP. push or give up?

[ahnuld]

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has he seen you get out of line? he's made some pretty thin calls against me after ive been caught doing goofy things.

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Same thing. Give up, hell only fold a flush draw. Good bet on turn, he calls alot of flop bets to peel on a gutter and will fold often enough to make that by far the best choice on the turn.

[Josh.]

even if he doesn't fold an A that much (and if he has an A, it's often AK IMO), he's still gonna have some Kxdd, QJdd, QTdd, JTdd sometimes and you lose if you check. AQ often rr preflop and/or dumps the turn, same for AJ. if he has AK good for him. figure he's not gonna flat call there that often, he'll have one of those flush draw hands more often than AK. even if he does have AQ at this point, that is a [censored] tough call to make

one thing though is i think you can bet less, since his hands are weighted toward hands that will instacall (AK, quads) or hands that will instafold (flush/combo draws). there are several different ways he could've played AQ or AJ so i don't think those are as much of a concern. also, i don't think a 2/3 pot bet looks suspicious. it could look liek a bet that wants to be called by AQ. i could even see a half pot bet aimed just at the flush draw hands. can't see that getting bluffraiesd

if i'm wrong anywhere i'd appreciate some help, because i'm going out on a limb posting

[cero_z]

Hey fv,

I haven't read the replies yet, so prolly a few have mentioned this, but isn't a hand like JTd, QJd, QTd fairly likely in this spot? What about Kxd (would he always raise flop with that?)? I think if you want to bluff, 400 should do it. I would try this fairly often, I think, given his stats and the odds the pot's laying me.

[cero_z]

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I'm having serious troubles putting villain on a hand that doesn't fold to the push on the river.

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I think AK calls, particulaly if he's played poker before.

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That hand shouldn't be too high on our list of worries.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

600 to 800 looks about right depending on how you would normally value bet. i don't like pot-sizing or pushing cuz i don't think it buys us any more folding equity than a normal value bet would and saves us a couple hundred if we get snapped off.

[ahnuld]

CDC and cero, if villan never folds an A for a psb or less, do you still like a bet?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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CDC and cero, if villan never folds an A for a psb or less, do you still like a bet?

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while he may or may not fold an A (i think most players should and are capable of folding a weakish ace here), some of his hand range is also a higher broadway flush draw or Kx combo draws which would fold if we give him the chance to.

EDIT TO ADD: just reread your question. are you suggesting that this particular opponent would call a 600 dollar bet but not a 940 dollar bet? cuz given his stack size/pot size i don't think there is a big diff between the two.

[Enzyme]

cero,
how often do you bet 400 with a made hand here? Say, we have AK in this spot. I understand the logic behind betting less and saving ourselves some money, when villain calls, but my problem with it is that I will never want to make 400 bet on the end, if I had a set or AK. It's either check or bet AI (villain has exactly pot size bet to call)

[Jay.]

if he never folds a pair then a small bet is better than checking. 400:1000 means 30% of his range has to be flush draw AND he never raises them. So i think you have a pretty large overly with this bluff. Josh explained the hand ranges well.

[ahnuld]

nono, im just saying unless we make some ridiculous bet, like 2000 which we dont even have, this player wont fold any ace since any ace gives him AA33K. So becuase of that and his hand range, I feel checking is best since I really doubt he plays a flush+gutter that way, he would have gotten the money in on the flop. I really think he has an A a high percentage of the time here and wont give up.

If we want to bet, I dont see why it should ever be more than 600 becuase he wont bluff raise our 550 bet, he either calls with his aces or folds his missed draws. Betting 800 doesnt accomplish much more that 550.

I missed his post before, but everything josh said was right on, except people are not recognising how often he has an A. He is an aggro player, well at least enough that he would normally raise his big draws.