Kobayashi seriously injures jaw

[kaboshedx]

exactly, may as well hit it. I don't see any harm in not as I will not be cashing out the money nor tieing it up in other bets within the next two weeks.

I was aware of the "must eat clause" and I do see value in this as there is always the chance that Koba will make an appearance - let's hope he does.

[MCS]

Hell, I hope he does too. I bet a unit on Chestnut at even money a few days ago. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[null]

[ QUOTE ]

There is a non-zero chance that Kobayashi will compete. Even if the bet is cancelled 99% of the time, there is some value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I bet the max where I could on Chestnut at 1/1 odds (bodog and nine). It took 5 minutes tops, and if Kobayashi ends up competing, which he may do, it'll be worth it.

Check out gowdemon's post (near the end of the page) here:
http://forums.lasvegasadvisor.com/me...hreadid=243766

Apparently Kobayashi may compete.

[XXXNoahXXX]

nevermind

[kaboshedx]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/28/ny...mp;oref=slogin


...so he is competing, psychological warfare or is there indeed an egde on Chesnut at -125? Should be lots of speculation about this.

[APT]

No speculation about it.
He really hurt his jaw.But He will compete for his dead mother if he can open his mouth .And He knows he will lose with that condition.
You do not know how Japanese think.
So bet on Chestnut if you can.Actually I could not find this bet anywhere.

[goodsamaritan]

[ QUOTE ]
No speculation about it.
He really hurt his jaw.But He will compete for his dead mother if he can open his mouth .And He knows he will lose with that condition.
You do not know how Japanese think.
So bet on Chestnut if you can.Actually I could not find this bet anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably crazy enough to get cortisone shots in his jaw the night before. Part of me agrees with you and says Chestnut is the nuts, but another part of me thinks that betting against Kobayashi is like starting a land war in Asia.

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

I really appreciate the contributions Performidy makes to this forum, but I thought at the time that this was just wrong. Given that Kobayashi is Japanese (I live in this country, and there is great social pressure not to quit something if at all possible), that he had never said he wasn't going to compete, and that we're not doctors, there really was little "given information," as to whether he'd appear, and in reality this was very similar to a great baseball bet with a high chance of rain.

Anyway, of course this is obvious in retrospect, but I'm just surprised anyone on 2+2 would say a bet is -EV when the most likely outcomes are a +EV bet or a draw. A lot of times we're only looking for 5% edges at best anyway, and I think this one would certainly qualify. :-) Now watch Kobayashi win. :-)

[Performify]

No question I was wrong based on what's transpired so far...

-P

[kaboshedx]

Well Pinny hasn't put the offer back up so it looks like I'll be exposed for my full risk amount on this one.

It just feels like he's toying with Chesnut a bit here. You guys seem to be taking his injury report with full honesty because...he's Japanese. I hope you're right and this all isn't just bs.