#18
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
[ QUOTE ]
:grunch: Ok, here we go: 1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%. 2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB EV = +6.177BB Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time) a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB EV = +6.062BB So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down. 3. Is b/f better than c/c? No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB. 4. Wider range? Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch. kudos to Mav too |
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