2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river

[Burdzthewurd]

2/4 PLO HU

I have $580, Villain covers. Villain is unknown, times out a lot b/c she sucks at playing 3 tables, is passive post-flop with naked overpairs, and only 3-bets AAxx preflop. She's lead for pot when obvious draws hit, though I feel sort of odd about this one since a FD obviously missed, and she hasn't shown a bluff either. Is this an easy muck for most of you or look it up one time?

Hero raises to $12 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Villain calls.

Flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $20, Villain calls.

Turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $64, Villain calls.

River 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets $192

[Flip-Flop]

I`m calling because of the 2 blockers.
One time!

[wazz]

Snapcall

[garcia1000]

Swongs are one time

[Elrazor]

i would possibly bet $40 or so on the turn - the pot bet is very strong, and if she has picked up a combo draw with low cards on the turn, she might read your bet as weak and decide to repot. Of course most of the time they wont, but you have to give villan an oppertunity to hang themselves

i can only find a fold on the river against the biggest nits who would never bluff here and have told me in passing that they have their entire roll on the table and if they lose it they cant afford this months rent

[jbird]

[ QUOTE ]
Snapcall


[/ QUOTE ]

[pete fabrizio]

what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff. i guess i agree that it's a call against most opponents who are capable of bluffing, especially if they're not that good.

[sc000t]

I call this but I really would expect to see 35AKcc or something like that or a pure bluff. Its just hard to put opponent on some 35xx hand since you have a Q, two Js, two Clubs and a 3 in hand reducing all the possibilities of combinations she could have to play here. But ya, this is a missed river club bluff or like A35X (with clubs or Q/T/K as X, or both). I wish I could fold this but I just can't, all the player information points to a fold but its just too hard for me to do it here.

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's the other way around. Moron instapot = bluff... average "thinking" player instapot = nuts

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's the other way around. Moron instapot = bluff... average "thinking" player instapot = nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

i was never very good with tells.