Variance is a bitch, I have to drop down, when can I go back up?

[Dankenstein]

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Kerowo and to everyone, thank you for your responses. It's much appriciated.

Dank, I don't have every hand I played listed on this PC, some losing sessions were on a friends computer that I do not have access to now. On this PC at 1/2 specifically I have over 7,000 hands listed. I would assume on the other PC's I logged about 500 hands. So about 7,500 hands total.

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Your sample is not that big.

This could be variance but it could also be (and more likely is) a result of leaks in your game. If you had logged like 20-30k hands as a winning player and then started having this downswing, you might be able to chalk it up to variance, but here you have nothing to suggest this being variance anymore than problems with your game. I personally think that you should move down to .25/.50 and try to grind your way back up as previously suggested. I think this will allow you to play a lot of hands at a lot less risk and help you fix your game. Focus on reviewing your sessions. post more and respond to more posts. Don't give up. Good luck.

[knockonwood]

IMO i reckon a lot of newer posters here should concentrate on fundamentals like counting outs, calculating odds, hand reading, reading the board, thinking about position etc than worrying about whether 300 or 1000bb's is enough to play 0.25-.50 or 0.5-1.

It seems like we have one of these threads each week.

[Bona]

OK IMO drop to the lowest stakes that can hold your interest. Be patient. Get the books if you don't have them. Read them again if you do have them. Be patient. Review every session yourself after the session. Find you your leaks and work on fixing them (not easy from my experience) Be patient. Post the hands you just aren't sure about. Respond to more hands than you post. Try to participate in session reviews but only when you will really devote the time to do it right. Watch yourself get better. If you do those things faithfully you will be a winning player in a few weeks. I don't know when you will be a good player because I still am not there yet [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Smurph64]

At 150k hands of full limit in the micros I just came to the conclusion that I am a winning player and that I won't bust out with 300 bb 99 times out of 100. I will however do it once.

I have in my 150k hands at full ring had 1 450 bb swing down.

Technically, there is a formula you can use to determine what personal bankroll should keep you afloat.

http://support3.com/poker/bankroll/bankroll.asp

You need to know you winrate and standard deviation for this one but there is another one using thresholds that is more accurate, which ranges your winrate.

In other words it will help you know if you have enough hands to determine if you are indeed a winning player.

The other problem is moving up and playing 6max vs full ring, which essentially should be a new calculation.

Currently I have 10k hands at 1/2 6 max and am down 100 bb so no bankroll is going to keep me playing there but at the limit lower I probably could play forever with a 300 bb bankroll.

And of course that also means I don't get worse or my opponents don't get better, which is not likely given the enviroment of the day.

I used to be a 10 handicap golfer when I was 13 but I doubt I could break 90 today.

Just keep on working on playing well, pick tables that you can beat and eventually you will find more and more tables to pick from.

Table selection is a critical skillset that is underutilized in the micro stakes world. It is at least worth 2 bb/100 in my opinion.

[sfetaz]

I try to select a table that has a high average pot combined with a players to flop of at least 30% to ensure there are some loose players in the room. However seat selection is never really possible with the long waiting lists, and I do tend to have the looser players to my left. Its just my luck I suppose. Online sites should allow players who are sitting at a table priority to switch seats when one becomes available, like allowing a waiting list for a specific seat for players already seated. They do that in the casino in a sense.

[Aaron W.]

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Online sites should allow players who are sitting at a table priority to switch seats when one becomes available, like allowing a waiting list for a specific seat for players already seated. They do that in the casino in a sense.

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Imagine trying to do this in a room full of 200 players, with someone getting up every 10-20 seconds. How long will it take to fill that seat if everyone gets a right of first refusal?

[Second Toughest]

Kerowo got the answer spot on in the first post. I assume you can afford a few dollars to reload.

If your aim is to increase your bankroll in the long run play at whatever limit you think will achieve this. So, if you think the downturn is affecting your confidence, drop a level until your confidence returns. If it's not affecting your game stay at your current limit and ride it out.

[sfetaz]

I mean only people sitting at the table currently can request a specific seat. So at a 9 handed table one seat can be requested by 8 people. Once that seat is free, the first person on the waiting list for the room itself takes the seat that was occupied by the person who just switched.

[KyndGroove]

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Online sites should allow players who are sitting at a table priority to switch seats when one becomes available, like allowing a waiting list for a specific seat for players already seated. They do that in the casino in a sense.

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Yes, this is common practice in B&M, but only b/c it typically takes at least 5 minutes for the brush to get the seating button and call the next person on the list, leaving plenty of time for a player to ask to change seats.

Online, casinos lose revenue for every extra second on average it takes to fill a seat.

As far as improving your luck in seat selection, take the best seat you can find when you start your session and keep putting your name on lists until the perfect seat comes up.

[OziBattler]

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In total I have over 12,000 hands registered, accounting for the various limits played. PT has me listed only down $76 but I lost money other times playing on the other PCs.

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FWIW just because you have the bankroll doesnt mean you should move up. 12k basically means you are still learning and to be blunt, unless youve learnt quickly you probably arent ready for 1/2 which is a grinders limit and not an easy limit to beat. Personally ive always tried to play 10k hands at each limit before moving up and i wont move up til I have a decent winrate. My motivations are probably different to yours so if you want to move up then move up....but just be aware that doing it because you have the bankroll for it isnt necessarily a great reason. Also variance is usually only part of the problem. It is easy to play bad/differently when you move up and it is also possible that you just arent quite good enough to beat that limit yet.


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Online sites should allow players who are sitting at a table priority to switch seats when one becomes available, like allowing a waiting list for a specific seat for players already seated. They do that in the casino in a sense.

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I dont think this is a good idea as it can make fish feel nervous when everyone clambers for position on them which can often make them leave. Youll also get situations when people are constantly changing seats just because they can and it could become a game of musical chairs.


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Table selection is a critical skillset that is underutilized in the micro stakes world. It is at least worth 2 bb/100 in my opinion.

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aahhh... table/seat selection a topic close to my [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].