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#11
08-14-2006, 02:59 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Plays 96% of hands, how can he win 60% of showdowns? I thought that looked so weird. Sure, 170 hands, but I would figure that number would converge very quickly for someone who plays every hand. [/ QUOTE ] You do not understand variance or convergence. Go play more. That's how we all know this is nonsense and you don't. |
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#12
08-14-2006, 03:00 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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[ QUOTE ] 1. How many hands would you need to have to be pretty sure that there was something screwy going on? [/ QUOTE ] I'd say 50K for W$SD [ QUOTE ] 2. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see everyone else's hole cards in addition to his own, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] No [ QUOTE ] 3. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see what the board would be before the hand, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] well obviously he won't see every flop if he know what was coming. This is a pretty pointless discussion in general. I love "LC?" What exactly is the question? [/ QUOTE ] It's Low Content. Meaning, he's tilted that some [censored] took x BBs off him at a table and left. You can pretty safely ignore LC and NC posts. |
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#13
08-14-2006, 03:01 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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i thought #3 was assuming he still saw 96% of flops anyway but obviously gets away from hands that will end up being weak at the end. LC? [/ QUOTE ] Understanding his posts "logic" is difficult. |
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#14
08-14-2006, 03:04 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 1. How many hands would you need to have to be pretty sure that there was something screwy going on? [/ QUOTE ] I'd say 50K for W$SD [ QUOTE ] 2. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see everyone else's hole cards in addition to his own, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] No [ QUOTE ] 3. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see what the board would be before the hand, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] well obviously he won't see every flop if he know what was coming. This is a pretty pointless discussion in general. I love "LC?" What exactly is the question? [/ QUOTE ] It's Low Content. Meaning, he's tilted that some [censored] took x BBs off him at a table and left. You can pretty safely ignore LC and NC posts. [/ QUOTE ] It's kind of like checking out BBV. You know you shouldn't. You know you could be doing some other more productive things, but you just can't help yourself. At least, I can’t. |
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#15
08-14-2006, 03:06 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 1. How many hands would you need to have to be pretty sure that there was something screwy going on? [/ QUOTE ] I'd say 50K for W$SD [ QUOTE ] 2. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see everyone else's hole cards in addition to his own, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] No [ QUOTE ] 3. If you knew that his only advantage was that he could see what the board would be before the hand, could you get it so that you had an advantage? [/ QUOTE ] well obviously he won't see every flop if he know what was coming. This is a pretty pointless discussion in general. I love "LC?" What exactly is the question? [/ QUOTE ] It's Low Content. Meaning, he's tilted that some [censored] took x BBs off him at a table and left. You can pretty safely ignore LC and NC posts. [/ QUOTE ] It's kind of like checking out BBV. You know you shouldn't. You know you could be doing some other more productive things, but you just can't help yourself. At least, I can’t. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm, like 3,000 of my posts are in BBV. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
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#16
08-14-2006, 03:09 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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How many players do you have in your DB? 10k or more? Is it conceivable to think that 1 in 10,000 players may show stats like that? -Caddy [/ QUOTE ] For example I've been datamining fulltilt for 2 days. 955 players, 21K hands. a 15/30 player is 77/17 over 198 hands. His W$SD is 56. He's up 18 hundred bucks too. |
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#17
08-14-2006, 03:26 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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[ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Plays 96% of hands, how can he win 60% of showdowns? I thought that looked so weird. Sure, 170 hands, but I would figure that number would converge very quickly for someone who plays every hand. [/ QUOTE ] You do not understand variance or convergence. Go play more. That's how we all know this is nonsense and you don't. [/ QUOTE ] Ay yi yi, I understand variance and convergence, I was just wondering what number of hands it would take for something like a wtsd/w$sd combination with a vpip of 96% to reach a believable level. I mean obviously it's not sustainable, but I'd be shocked if it didn't go away after 10k hands even. 50k for a player that bad seems huge. I know a poor player can be a winner over a large number of hands. But I was thinking that this player was SO bad that his true winrate couldn't be as high as it is for even a relatively small sample. The ? was a typo. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] |
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#19
08-14-2006, 04:26 AM
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Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)
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1. fuggetaboutit [/ QUOTE ] Good call, I think I will. Mods pleeeeease lock this one. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
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