Live 1/2 NL AA with ugly flop but interesting circumstances

[Javanewt]

Live 1/2 NL

About 2 a.m. Monday morning. Mix of tight and loose but aggressive and fairly solid (mainly regulars) players — 8 handed.

I think they consider me to be in the middle. They've seen one bluff, but mainly fairly solid play.

Buy-in is $300. I’m down to about $150 (very nasty bad beats). I’m not buying back in, because we are leaving soon and I’m already up $600. Just playing for fun — to double back up or lose one buy-in in a weekend of poker that’s paid for my vacation regardless.

Button (loose player) straddles $5. Two callers (both joined us because their 2/5 NL table broke — the second guy has not folded a hand pre-flop in an hour). Folds to me in late position and I have AA. I raise to $25 and plan to shove any flop.

Button calls, one fold, and the 2/5 player who has yet to fold pre-flop calls. (These are the only two players I expected to call with almost any hand.)

Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (I did not have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])

2/5 player checks.

Hero? Do I stick with my plan?

[novel20]

bet $5

[mce86]

No. Make bet, read the players, play poker. How is shovin ant flop a good idea? Second, make your raise bigger...make it look like your stealing the straddle money. Not having the ace of clubs is not a concern, its the idea of someone sticing around with face cards including a king which is a concern.

[O0Brian0O]

Why are you shoving the flop? I Bet 60ish, and get it all in to a raise, or on the turn (no matter what comes).

[Landlord79]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you shoving the flop? I Bet 60ish, and get it all in to a raise, or on the turn (no matter what comes).

[/ QUOTE ]

SPR of <2, he's mostly committed himself at this point, any bet he makes puts him over the edge. All in or check/fold!

If the LP player is really bad/aggro and will bet this flop w/o a K, I might check to him, let him bet and see what the EP player does. Ck/raise the LP player AI but fold to an EP non-folding action.

Tough spot!

[Javanewt]

Nice to get some feedback, thanks. (BTW, I'm a woman [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

OK, I checked, button bet $30, 2/5 player folded, hero?

(Betting a little more pre-flop crossed my mind, but I wanted a caller, and I didn't want it to look suspicious. Also, and this is pathetic but true, I had only $25 chips in front of me, and it was just so easy to throw one in there.)

[O0Brian0O]

I know were committed, and we want to be. I'm asking because we definitely lose value by pushing. I think lesser hands will call a bet, or try to bluff us, if we just bet. I think only better hands (e.g. a king...) call a push, so why just push?

As played, raise. Either all in if you think you will get called, or to $75 if you arent sure.

[Albert Moulton]

-the pot is about $80,
-effective stacks are $125,
-SPR is ~1.5,
-there are 3 loose players to the flop who think you are "in the middle" solid,
-you are in between a caller who checked the flop, and another caller button left to act behind you.

I think if you push, only Kx and 77 will call. If you check, you run the risk of a club or some other free card hitting the other players. If you check, you might also induce a bluff which will be indistinguishable from a Kx made hand. So, I think you need to bet, but not push.

So, bet $40. Fold if button pushes AND the 2/5 player calls. Make a judgement call if you bet $40, then one player folds while the other pushes (either button raising or 2/5 player CRAI). Call if you think that player might make a move with less than a K, but otherwise fold since he'd usually be afraid that you have AK if he didn't have the K or better. In the game you describe, I'd be inclined to call a push from either one of them as long as the other wasn't along for the ride. But folding wouldn't be terrible if the guy pushing was generally solid post-flop.

If button called, but then the 2/5 player CR'edAI, then I'd probably fold because one of them probably has the K or better.

Push any non-club turn if button calls and 2/5 player folds. C/f to push from button on a club turn unless you had a read that he is the type to play scare cards and phantom outs. If that's the case, c/c a club turn and hope he's bluffing with a single club. It's unlikely, though, so c/f might be best in that instance. Pushing a club turn doesn't make sense, since Kx or better won't fold, and worse hands (if he has somehow managed to get this far with a worse hand) can fold instead of making a semi-bluff with no king and one club (if he's the kind to make those plays).

Check behind any check from 2/5 player if button folds and 2/5 calls the flop, but checks the turn. Then if 2/5 player pushes the river, then call if it's a non-club (hoping you've induced a bluff), check behind if checked to, and probably fold if he pushes on a club river.