PLO8 MTT - Flop Decision Early in Tourney

franknagaijr · #1 10-30-2007, 11:04 AM

It's early in a public $5.50 Donkament, so we cannot make any assumptions about the cast of characters.

1) How do you feel about the pre-flop call?
2) What is a correct course of action on the flop?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1780
UTG+1: t1495
MP1: t2386
MP2: t2185
MP3: t1210
CO: t990
Button: t1315
SB: t2320
BB: t809

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero calls t30 (pot was t45), UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t30 (pot was t75), 2 folds, CO calls t30 (pot was t105), Button calls t30 (pot was t135), SB calls t15 (pot was t165), BB raises to t210, Hero calls t180 (pot was t360), MP1 folds, CO calls t180 (pot was t540), Button calls t180 (pot was t720), SB folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t900, 4 players)
BB is all-in t599, Hero has T1570 in stack. The two yet to act have about T700 and T1100 in their stacks.

Hero....

Truthiness24 · #2 10-30-2007, 07:39 PM

It depends on how you want to play.

Some people (and usually I am one of them) would say that you should push here for the purpose of either accumulating a lot of chips early or donking out (hence the term) and moving on to the next $5 tourney. This approach is often best if you are capable of playing well late and making a lot of top 3s.

OTOH, you completely missed, and there are going to be better spots. Even in a donkament someone out of these three has A2 90+% of the time. In a cash game with competent players, not folding is surely -EV, but in a MTT those chips are of enough value that you might consider a push.

Remember, it's a donkament because the seeming donk play of pushing here has value in that you can accumulate chips early & try to go deep, or be done and not waste your time.

I think that this is an interesting hand and interesting decision. The answer seems obvious, but it isn't because there is SO much value in doubling or tripling up on level 2 of a big MTT. If I am right and it is an open question, then two things come of it IMO:

(1) Since lots of people play LAGgy this way, there is lots of money to be had by taking a TAG approach.
(2) The donk that pushes with your hand into that board is going to win often enough to make it worth his while and piss you off if you are playing TAG.

So it's really a question of your approach to MTTs. In this particular hand, without any specific reads, I'm folding 90% of the time.

Truthiness24 · #3 10-30-2007, 07:40 PM

I'm looking at the hand again, and I'm thinking that UTG you should consider re-potting or folding PF. If you aren't comfortable with re-potting, then I think you find the answer to your question right there.

Big Dave D · #4 10-30-2007, 08:04 PM

If you continue to repot with AQ33 preflop in plo8b donkaments, you are going to get to play a lot of them.

gl

bdd

Buzz · #5 10-30-2007, 08:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BB raises to t210, Hero calls t180

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Frank - That's where Hero went wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
1) How do you feel about the pre-flop call?

[/ QUOTE ]Fine.
[ QUOTE ]
2) What is a correct course of action on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]You should not get that far.

The pair of treys stinks. Thus you're basically playing a three card starting hand. It's not a great hand, but if you can see the flop cheaply, you might connect. It's worth a cheap chance to see the flop, figuring you can out-play your opponents later in the hand. But you're not going to get a chance to do that here. Instead you're going to be forced to gamble without knowing where you stand.

Buzz

Truthiness24 · #6 10-31-2007, 11:40 AM

Once I looked at the hand again, I thought that folding PF seemed like a better decision. But I do think that it is leaky to play too tight early in those donkaments because you never get an opportunity to build a stack to compete with later.

franknagaijr · #7 10-31-2007, 12:01 PM

My general observation is that you'll see a lot of raising with two very specific groups of hands: A2xx or AAxx. This probably was better as a preflop fold, but I've started playing out some implied odds problems to see where it takes me.

And yes, waiting for those two prime groups of hands and going to town is theoretically good, but only if you can stomach lots of bricked flops.

Truthiness24 · #8 10-31-2007, 12:34 PM

Definitely. Check out this hand:

FullTiltPoker $3,000 Guarantee 800/1600 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 2:23:39 ET - 2007/10
Seat 2: Hero (15,666)
Seat 4: (12,724)
Seat 5: SB (21,710) posts 800
Seat 6: BB (13,586) posts 1600
Seat 7: (29,034)
Seat 8: Villain (22,263)
Seat 9: (17,496)

The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [2s 7s Jc Ad]
Seat 7 folds
Villain raises to 4,800
Seat 9 folds
Hero calls 4,800
Seat 4 folds
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 folds

*** FLOP *** [Js 8c Tc]
Villain bets 6,000
Hero raises to 10,866, and is all in

I have Villain as 20/9 over 80 hands, and the c-bet was instantaneous. Thoughts?

franknagaijr · #9 10-31-2007, 12:39 PM

I'm not sure I see the logic of the push here. You've got top pair only, with backdoors to a low or a flush, right? (Edit - plus an inside draw) If Villain has AA, he's got to call on pot odds alone, and if villain has naked A2 and you're actually ahead here, he probably still can't fold here. So IMO fold equity is zero and I'd figure there's a 70% chance that you're behind a high pair.

Sorry, I'm not a pokertracker, and 20/9 doesn't mean much to me. I assume that's a low agression factor?

Truthiness24 · #10 10-31-2007, 03:45 PM

The numbers meant that he voluntarily played a hand only 20% of the time and raised PF 9%, or about half of the time when he played a hand. That makes his range too wide to assume AA IMO.

Villain raised UTG and then he didn't even think about the c-bet before he popped it. Even if you have AA you have to think about whether the flop hit you. Based on the numbers and a hand I saw earlier I put him on a naked A2 and a draw at best.

If I was right, then he still had half his stack left if he folded. He probably has enough pot equity to call, but he's played tight enough that I might get a fold.