AQ SB Playalong

[James.]

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Rico,

don't you think most of the hands that are raising my flop bet are 3betting my c/r?


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I don't think this is necessarily true. I don't know the button well obviously, but most run of the mill guys are going to raise a flop bet with a much wider range than they will 3-bet a c/r by the sb preflop raiser. I agree that putting in 3-bets on the flop sucks on a drawy board. But the reason I liked considering the c/r is that the button is likely to bet a huge range on that board once checked to him; so I am more willing to put in an extra sb in those instances to shut out bb and get it HU with the loosey. If we don't expect him to bet most of his range on the flop, then I don't care too much for the flop c/r.

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What types of hands are raising that flop and with what frequency? Obviously the range will be on a continuum from bluffs to the nuts. Somewhere in between we find the median, and that is where we make the most money.

Before any action has unfolded we established that my hand was favorable to be best on that flop. As the action unfolds we can reassess this probability and determine the most profitable way to go with our holding. So we must ask ourselves, “What hands are giving us action on that board?” Typical 6 outers will raise as a semibluff less frequently. So we can assign a lower % of relevance to them if I bet and get raised or I c/r and get 3bet.

More often, if my bet or c/r gets raised we are against a made hand(straight is certainly possible, a pair, two pair, or a set) or we are against a good draw(flush draw, straight draw, or combo draw). I’m pretty certain that if we evaluated those ranges for made hands versus drawing hands we would find the number of combos consisting of drawing hands outnumber the number of combos for made hands.

In reference to your “not necessarily true” remark in regard to the “any hand raising my flop bet is 3betting my flop c/r” comment, I can’t think of any hand but maybe the one pair or bluff hands that raise that flop if I bet and don’t 3bet the flop if I c/r. any good draw is likely to 3bet because they want to clean up outs, induce me to fold on a later street, or more frequently, gain a free card. A lot of this has to do with our read on the button. A good amount of our focus has been to c/r him on the flop. Problem is, we are going to be faced with the situations at times that we check, BB bets and the button raises. Now in that situation, even with an unpaired hand, we often have the equity to continue in the hand but we can’t realize that equity because we are basically looking at being forced into a fold. Why is this such a bad scenario? Because as I stated prior, a good range of the hands that are betting/raising the flop are attributable to drawing hands. So we fold the best hand a non-negligible amount of the time in what is becoming a sizeable pot.

Like you, I hate putting in 3bets on such a drawy board(when I don’t hold the draw). I also dislike offering a free card to the 6outers that will often call the flop bet because of the significant % of our opponents’ holdings that have two overs to the board. Combine with this the fact that I really don’t want to start having to play AA-99(or whatever else I raise from the sb) this way and I just am not feeling a flop c/r. I have a lot of respect for both you and Harv and for that reason you’ve really got me doubting myself. I’ll think about it some more.

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if i bet, get called and then lead the turn and get raised, i can usually find a fold.

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By the way, this happens to me about 95% of the time I have ace high oop, HU on a drawy board in a smallish pot. I imagine that I am getting pushed off the best hand a healthy % of the time when this occurs (opponent specific) and I would expect this here to some degree. Not that folding is wrong, just that the whole scenario sucks b/c of board and position.

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The way I phrased this is a bit misleading. If I bet, bb calls and button raises I can find a fold. If I bet, bb folds and button raises I’m at least seeing the next card. The reasoning behind this is exactly what you referred to in your post. Sometimes in these aggressive 6max games the best thing to do is grit your teeth and call down frequently enough to show you can’t be pushed around.

[Harv72b]

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don't you think most of the hands that are raising my flop bet are 3betting my c/r?

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I'm much more worried about what BB is holding than what BTN has. If BB checks behind us, BTN bets, and we check then check/raise, we put a lot of pressure on BB to fold quite a few hands that we would love for him to fold--things like A6-A4 in particular, but also hands like TT-88 that he might well have called with preflop; to say nothing of gutshot draws with hands like 98s that we wouldn't mind getting rid of. Admittedly, it becomes less likely that he's holding an overpair or A6 if he checks behind us, but you see my point. And if BB is indeed "taggish", then I don't think it's a stretch in the least to expect him to raise a lead bet with many of those same hands.

Based on stats alone, BTN seems very much like the sort of player who will bet this flop with ATC if it's checked to him, and we're either ahead or drawing pretty healthy against a lot of his ATC combos.

Rico did an excellent job of summing up a lot of my concerns on a board like this, which I was too lazy to try to type out myself. From a single street point of view, there may well be some value to betting in this scenario. But I think the hand becomes much easier to play when we give up the lead on the flop, and especially if we can then use our check to isolate on a loose/aggressive opponent. I believe that this makes checking a better option...and if it does check around, we can likely take the pot down (or at least deny odds to nearly any draw) with a turn bet. Particularly if your table image is solid and you are viewed as a somewhat tricky but generally straightforward player.

[James.]

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I'm much more worried about what BB is holding than what BTN has. If BB checks behind us, BTN bets, and we check then check/raise, we put a lot of pressure on BB to fold quite a few hands that we would love for him to fold--things like A6-A4 in particular, but also hands like TT-88 that he might well have called with preflop; to say nothing of gutshot draws with hands like 98s that we wouldn't mind getting rid of. Admittedly, it becomes less likely that he's holding an overpair or A6 if he checks behind us, but you see my point. And if BB is indeed "taggish", then I don't think it's a stretch in the least to expect him to raise a lead bet with many of those same hands.

Based on stats alone, BTN seems very much like the sort of player who will bet this flop with ATC if it's checked to him, and we're either ahead or drawing pretty healthy against a lot of his ATC combos.

Rico did an excellent job of summing up a lot of my concerns on a board like this, which I was too lazy to try to type out myself. From a single street point of view, there may well be some value to betting in this scenario. But I think the hand becomes much easier to play when we give up the lead on the flop, and especially if we can then use our check to isolate on a loose/aggressive opponent. I believe that this makes checking a better option...and if it does check around, we can likely take the pot down (or at least deny odds to nearly any draw) with a turn bet. Particularly if your table image is solid and you are viewed as a somewhat tricky but generally straightforward player.

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I agree BB is more of a concern than button. That doesn’t mean we need to be scared of him until he gives us something to be scared of, though. I think I’ve pretty much decided the EV of betting or checkraising is pretty damn close. I say this because if you factor the value you gain from loose peels by overcard draws and gutshots that proceed to fold the turn(and the very rare occurrence that we take it down on the flop) with the value we gain from the c/r the times it doesn’t check through should be pretty close in overall net gain. The big variables in this hand are how my opponents react to a PFR who checks the flop OOP, how they play weak draws, and how often they bluff/semibluff.

BB close to never has a pocket overpair on this board. Even a mostly passive players in this game would 3bet 88-TT pf(most likely 77 as well). Also, BB never, ever checks a hand like A4-A6. I do agree he might raise my flop bet with A4-A6, but given that we hold an ace and there is a 4, 5, and 6 on the board we are talking about a very limited number of combinations compared to the myriad of other holdings(connectors/suited hands, etc.) he could have. So what I’m saying is he is much more likely to be holding a 3-6 out overcard, straight draw, or flush draw than a pair with ace kicker that has me dominated.

I agree that button typically bets a wide range when checked to, but he will likely hold a certain amount of skepticism about the situation after I raise pf and check the flop 3handed.