[NL50] backdoor FH vs utg raiser

[br.bm]

UTG $36, no reads
Mid1 $50
Hero covers

Hero has 66 on the button

UTG raise to $1,75
Mid1 calls
Hero call

Flop ($5,25) AQ8
UTG checks
Mid1 checks
Hero bets $3
UTG calls

Turn ($11,25) AQ8 8 (rainbow)
UTG checks
Hero checks

River ($11,25) AQ8 86
UTG bets $5
Hero ?

Well, I guess a big part of his range is QQ+ and AJ+. Should I raise to $15 and insta call a push here?
I thought about the advice in SS2. It goes like this: "If you are 99% sure you have the best hand but villian won't call a raise w/o having you beat, don't raise"

[Fiasco]

1) Use a HH converter

2) A lot of hands will call you that you beat. At ther very least you will get called by AQ, 8x, AK, maybe AJ and AT.

[ship_it_trebek]

I'm not a fan of the stab on the flop, usually I only play pairs calling an UTG raise for set value. As played, you have to raise the river. You are losing tremendous value by flat calling here.

[br.bm]

yeah, I agree, the flop is questionable

actually I ran it through equilator and it says my equity against {AA, QQ, AK, AQ} is ~75%
And this is a somewhat pesimistic range.

Results: I raised, he pushed and showed AA