Diamondbacks: Real Fangs or just empty rattling?

[34TheTruth34]

They're definitely a very interesting case study, what with their 62-69 X W-L and their 74-57 actual record.

To me, they're kinda like the opposite of the 2006 Cleveland Indians. All everybody wanted to talk about last year was how historically unlucky the Indians were. And, it's true that they finished like 10-15 games below their X W-L based on RS/RA.

But they had a great offense and a horrible bullpen. So, as a result, they lost tons of close games when their bullpen blew late-inning leads. But they also won tons of games like 13-4.

So, while you do have to be pretty unlucky to outscore your opponents by almost 100 runs and finish 6 games below .500, there's still, IMO, reasons it can happen other than just variance.

The '07 D-Backs, as was pointed out in the linked article, are the opposite. They use their solid starting pitching and bullpen to win the close games and, so it seems, really get pounded when they lose. If their offense comes around and they start hitting like they were projected to, they could very likely be the best team in the NL by playoff time.

I say real fangs.

[THAY3R]

TheTruth,

The 2005 Indians had the best bullpen in the majors.

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
They're definitely a very interesting case study, what with their 62-69 X W-L and their 74-57 actual record.

To me, they're kinda like the opposite of the 2006 Cleveland Indians. All everybody wanted to talk about last year was how historically unlucky the Indians were. And, it's true that they finished like 10-15 games below their X W-L based on RS/RA.

But they had a great offense and a horrible bullpen. So, as a result, they lost tons of close games when their bullpen blew late-inning leads. But they also won tons of games like 13-4.

So, while you do have to be pretty unlucky to outscore your opponents by almost 100 runs and finish 6 games below .500, there's still, IMO, reasons it can happen other than just variance.

The '07 D-Backs, as was pointed out in the linked article, are the opposite. They use their solid starting pitching and bullpen to win the close games and, so it seems, really get pounded when they lose. If their offense comes around and they start hitting like they were projected to, they could very likely be the best team in the NL by playoff time.

I say real fangs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Solid post. I think that tinkering with the adjusted standings a bit would make it more accurate. Texas is going to gain like 4 expected wins because they had a couple insane innings in a historic blowout.

It's not perfect, but if they just took all of the games decided by 8+ runs and counted them as full wins/losses, then used the same formula to calculate the rest of the runs, it would probably be a bit better. There's no sense in skewing the results because a team scores a few garbage runs in a blowout.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
TheTruth,

The 2005 Indians had the best bullpen in the majors.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing. Dbacks suck. Baseballs is about scoring runs and not letting people run a train on you. Dbacks are getting trained on by a pack of silverback gorillas.

[THAY3R]

I'm pretty sure third order wins account for lopsided games.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Chrisman886]

This ballgame is going to make me throw up if the pads lose 1-0 after scoring 394723948263952 runs on that roadtrip.

[bugstud]

with how much drew and quentin and conor and tracy underperformed, plus cyoung's disappearing obp...

I mean this is where the ppl with tons of dback money expected them to be, just kinda odd how they've gotten here.

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
with how much drew and quentin and conor and tracy underperformed, plus cyoung's disappearing obp...

I mean this is where the ppl with tons of dback money expected them to be, just kinda odd how they've gotten here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, exactly. Imagine how many more wins they'd have if even half of their kids would have hit their 30th percentile projections.

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
To me, they're kinda like the opposite of the 2006 Cleveland Indians.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
TheTruth,

The 2005 Indians had the best bullpen in the majors.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try again.

[THAY3R]

It's not my fault that you didn't understand what I was saying and thus making you look stupid.