Check my math - Sklanky Stacks, Handranges and KK

[br.bm]

Hey 2+2,
here is my first thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
is my math right?

eff stacks 100BB
Hero KK

Preflop:
Hero: Raise to 5BB
Villian: Reraise to 15BB
Hero: 3bet 50BB
Villian: 4bet All in

Lets assume:
KK equity vs AA is 20%
KK equity vs ATC (but AA) is 80%

EV vs AA:
0.2 * 1.5 s - 0.8 * 0.5 s = -0.1 s
EV vs ATC:
0.8 * 1.5 s - 0.2 * 0.5 s = +1.1 s
(s = stacks)

If we call 12 times and villian has ATC once we are 0EV.
This means if 1/12 of his range is ATC we have to call.
1/12 = 0.083 or 8.3%
100 % - 8.3 % = 91.7%

If we are 90% sure that villian has AA a call is +EV.

[carnivalhobo]

ok so what? peoples "ATC" range here is mostly suited As, and smaller big pairs, not to mention Ak/AQ

[br.bm]

yeah, and 54s+
For simplicity I assumed the equity vs all of those hands as 80% and left out the other KK.
Using the correct odds should still lead to ~90%.

If I done it right, this is what I want to know.

[Erudito]

[ QUOTE ]
If we are 90% sure that villian has AA a call is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your math looks way off. I would like to know a villain who would 3bet reraise with ATC (any two cards). If this is true, I would love to play against him. A more realistic range would be this for villain {A2s+, AKo}. Against this range, KK has only about 68% equity. Therefore your equation above is not very realistic.

[5thStreetHog]

"I would like to know a villain who would 3bet reraise with ATC (any two cards)"

How ya doing??? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[br.bm]

EV vs {A2s+, AK} = 68%
0.68 * 1.5 s - 0.32 * 0.5 s = +0.86 s

If 1 out of 9.6 parts of his range is {A2s+, AK} its 0EV.
1/9.6 = 0.10416 = 10%

wouldn't be that much of a difference.

[Womble]

Erm..... its KK PF? Theres no need for maths here

[McRoNiX]

[ QUOTE ]
Erm..... its KK PF? Theres no need for maths here

[/ QUOTE ]

[br.bm]

well ... I ran w/ KK into AA 7times the last 20k hands.
simply believing all the "meh don't fold" voices isn't enough for me.

[Ratamahatta]

Think about it this way: if you put villain strictly on QQ+ it's 50/50. But there are more hands in his range which you are favorite against (AK, JJ maybe TT only if villain is a nit). Plus you are getting 3:1 which makes it a clear call.