To Every Thing, Turn Turn Turn ($162 FTP)

Newf-

Isn't my read specifically the reason that I would call?

edit: But either way, what are the min implied odds you would like to call here?

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave_D,

Two points:

1. This guy pretty much never has AQ here.
2. I only thought he had JJ+ after his turn bet. Of course if my range for him was JJ+ on the flop I would have check/folded, but on the flop his range definitely included AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I don't think he ever has even AK here, thats what I was trying to convey with the ? I mean given board it would just be an awful bluff.

I think this is a pretty obvious fold, we beat nothing,even if he happened to 3bet 99 PF. It would be hard in the heat of battle, but its a fold on the turn.

I agree that the turn is what really defines his hand and would have played it the same as you (except maybe raised flop). It was just something I thought I'd point out.

[Dave D]

Call PF is fine IMO, we know his range, and we're still ahead of AK or maybe AQ that does that pf. I think we are taking his stack with a set most of the time.

The more I think of it, the more I think I like the c/rai flop line. I think thats probably what I see myself doing there in the moment. We got lucky with an undercard flop, probably should exploit that and not give AK a cheap look at another card. Big pot, take it now.

Dave-

I'm confused how you want to crai on the flop, but DON'T want to open shove that turn.

[Dave D]

Yeah I was just thinking about that in the shower.

Generally I think I never open shove. Maybe that's a leak. I think other people are right that nothing we beat calls us, and I doubt we fold QQ+. I guess if our goal is to steal the pot, (kindof, but not really) then I think a flop shove does that better.

I think the turn check was the best line there, and I think it worked in getting him to define his hand. He hates the board, and doesn't want to give another card that could give the straight or flush. He wants to win the pot now with JJ+.

I think you're right in that we know he doesn't have AK on the turn, but he still might on the flop. That's a big reason why I want to shove flop, to fold AK, or possibly get it to call while behind (or AQ, I guess, but I doubt it ever calls). THe shove flop line is based on not knowing turn.

FWIW, if the turn was a 6 instead of a 9, I would more seriously consider open-shoving. Bad or good?

[Dave D]

Does he really believe you called/called PF with 9T, and then just called with an OESD? I think the second is a lot more plausable than the first.

Maybe if turn is 6s.

I assumed he would think just about any PP is in my range. When a 6 turns, there are more PPs that kill him than when the 9 turns.

[OfferUpBBs]

[ QUOTE ]
Call PF is fine IMO, we know his range, and we're still ahead of AK or maybe AQ that does that pf. I think we are taking his stack with a set most of the time.

The more I think of it, the more I think I like the c/rai flop line. I think thats probably what I see myself doing there in the moment. We got lucky with an undercard flop, probably should exploit that and not give AK a cheap look at another card. Big pot, take it now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very interesting line to me since I take this approach like never. Given villain is a solid TAG type player just what percentage of the time in your (collective) experience does he laydown QQ+?

[NYWalker]

Villain under betting the flop is tricky, it can be inducing bluff because most villain expects you c/r the flop with a pair and a draw or AK here. I like your check/call the flop.

However, I'd shove the turn and give AA/KK/QQ tough turn decision, decent players fold those hands here.