To Every Thing, Turn Turn Turn ($162 FTP)

$162 55K G'teed on FTP

This hand got interesting on the turn, and was actually similar to my WSOP ME bustout hand where I hit an open ender on the turn. This was different though because I think there's a good chance I'm ahead when it gets there.

Jay_Fiedler is the Villain in this hand. Not sure if he's known or not, but he was also next to me in a Stars $109 FO, so I thought some of you might know him. My read was that he was pretty TAG and doesn't go crazy in spots he doesn't have to (he rarely defended his blinds early in the tourney).

EMP raises to 360 (60/120 blinds), I call in HJ with TT, Jay_Fielder makes it 1160 to go in CO with 9.8K to start the hand, EMP folds and I call (8.1K to start hand).

Flop is 8s5h7s, I check/call 1475. (standard, right?)

Turn is 9d.

Veeeerrrrry interesting.

I check kinda without a plan because I was very close to betting. He shoves 7.1K and I fold.

Now where'd I screw up?

[bugstud]

weird flop bet size by him. I don't really know wtf to do when you turn that card but if you shove what does he really call with?

For the record, normally I'd shove turn against most opponents, but I was pretty sure this guy was basically never bluffing with overs on this board and I even assumed he wasn't even value betting QQ+ 100% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
weird flop bet size by him

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Agree. At the time it felt more like a bluff-inducer than a weak c-bet, but I have no idea how I came up with that "feeling."

[Tyler Durden]

I think you did fine until the folding part.

[FGators]

If he's really TAG i'd consider mucking preflop.

Postflop I think its played fine.

He has like AA or KK here every time, given his description.

[Dave D]

He was at my table in the 50/50 deep last night, I think down to 60 or so. No reads on him, wasn't that long before I busted.

I call that shove. You have 10 redraw outs even if he has JJ-AA. He doesn't really have any other action on that turn right? He either gives up on the turn if he missed AK, or pushes. Pot odds aren't great here either.

Against AA you're 22%.

There's 5810 in the pot before his push. You are calling 5465 to win 11275. But sometimes he's bluffing with AK/AQ?

I think the bigger question here is, if you really think he has JJ+, shouldn't we fold the flop? And are we really playing TT for set value PF when we aren't getting implied odds with our stack?

edit: just realized our TT outs are no good against JJ. I think this might actually push this to a fold for me. So hard zomg overpair.

Dave_D,

Two points:

1. This guy pretty much never has AQ here.
2. I only thought he had JJ+ after his turn bet. Of course if my range for him was JJ+ on the flop I would have check/folded, but on the flop his range definitely included AK.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
For the record, normally I'd shove turn against most opponents, but I was pretty sure this guy was basically never bluffing with overs on this board and I even assumed he wasn't even value betting QQ+ 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this makes checking turn bad IMO. Set or two pair doesn't seem to be in this guys' range. Our semibluff can put JJ-AA to a tough decision, and deny a free card in case he has AK-AQ. I also don't like PF, I would just fold.

[mastr]

ship or fold pre?