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Old 08-13-2007, 12:32 PM
ymu ymu is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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Default Re: End game math decision w/T9s 5 handed as big stack

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I agree - we shouldn't have any FE here and we can push without it.

It's just that he made a very very weird move and it's not a bad idea to stop and think about why. I think we would have some FE post-flop if we just called, so it's not necessarily exactly zero preflop - especially if he was trying to aim for SB without risking all against us. The dynamic between him and SB, and generally with the table, would be a useful read.

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The economic dynamic bears repeating. If bounty outlasts the last two hunters, bounty gets a prize worth slightly more than 2nd prize. If bounty is knocked out by a non-bounty hunter (including big stack), then it becomes a last-longer between the two hunters.

Neither the raiser or the bounty had been in the habit of making blind-steal moves with weak hands.

The raisers fuzzy logic may have been a desire to isolate the bounty and push away the big stack without getting into trouble if big stack wakes up with a hand, but with the present stack sizes, it seems like the raiser has to choose push or fold here.

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This implies that SB is pretty strong to push here. If villain can still get the bounty if you knock out SB and he outlasts the other bounty hunter, you might have a modicum of FE preflop - especially if he knows that you know that SB has a strong hand here.
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