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#11
08-07-2007, 07:38 PM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You should bet this flop. [/ QUOTE ] why should i bet the flop? why is betting better than c/c or c/r? [/ QUOTE ] c/c is the worst option. c/r is better, but it may get 3-bet if CO has a big ace. The pot isn't very big, and betting the flop is a cheap way to take down this shorthanded pot right now. CO may wet his/her pants/panties and fold a pocket pair. Then again, you may actually have the best hand on the flop. If your flop bet is called, continue to lead out regardless of the turn card, then check the river unimproved. 
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#12
08-07-2007, 07:39 PM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would.
The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind)
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#13
08-08-2007, 09:53 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
blackasthma,
my point was betting sucks. we bet, CO raises and we lose the fish. we check, CO bets, fish calls, we c/r is definitely my standard play here.
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#14
08-08-2007, 09:57 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
If I am CO, I don't ever ever ever fold an ace here. [/ QUOTE ] nor would i necessarily expect him to. come on. you think he's only betting aces here?
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#15
08-08-2007, 10:05 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws. Given the pot size and the number of outs you have to a redraw, this probably only needs to work a small percentage of the time, I'm wagering 10% or less. Someone else want to do the math?
To be honest, this question is just best done as math. If we can say that all we need is for him to fold XX% of the time and A3s/A2s/KK-JJ constitute that part of his range, this is easily a good play, because it doesn't even account for the times that a villain is willing to fold AJ/AQ.(PokerBob might not do it, but it happens). Less speculation, more math, KTHX.
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#16
08-08-2007, 10:07 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would. [/ QUOTE ] mostly true. for that reason i mostly agree. [ QUOTE ] The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind) [/ QUOTE ] this is not mostly true. he's plenty aggro enough to bet an ace, a pp, a draw or complete air in that spot.
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#17
08-08-2007, 10:16 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
I don't like it much. You'd never take this line if you had an ace (would you really just check and call the flop if you could've gotten all that c/r value from the fish and the board has a flush draw on it and a possible straight draw? You're a TAG, you would go for the immediate value on a board with draws if you had an ace or a set. The only time you could play it this way is when you hit your straight on the turn), so why would he ever fold anything that beats you here? I usually call these weird check-raises out of curiosity. So you probably have the bet the river as well if you miss, and he is likely to call that as well.
I'd prefer the good old c/r flop, lead turn line. If you don't do that, I would just call the turn and give up UI. Perhaps that's weak.
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#18
08-08-2007, 10:27 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB) Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB) Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB) X=% of time he folds to your turn raise 5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47 5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X 5.15X+60 X=11.65% If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time. I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.
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#19
08-08-2007, 10:32 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE. [/ QUOTE ] Because math is just speculation expressed in numbers.
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#20
08-08-2007, 10:36 AM
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE. [/ QUOTE ] Because math is just speculation expressed in numbers. [/ QUOTE ] I think you know what I mean, but let's not sidetrack the topic.
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