3/6 River Decision

[Jeff76]

Disclaimer: I suck at rivers in pretty much every game there is.

Pretty sure this is standard up to the river, including my raise, but I had to pause once he 3bet the river. Can I re-raise here for value?

No real reads on vaillain, BTW- I've only played a few hands so far and the table seems fairly tight in general. I only have a few hands at 3/6, and the play does seem to be a lot better than 2/4 (as well as more fun).

Also, while we're here- whatever villain has, shouldn't he be betting 5th?

7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.58 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.92 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.46 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks

6th Street - (3.46 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

River - (5.46 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___????
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets___raises

[chucky]

Call. you are getting 8.5 to 1. Full house is possible, but villian needs less than FH 13% of the time to make the river call ev+. Reraising again seems inappropriate since you first raise got reraised.

[Jeff76]

Just to be clear- I am never folding. My question was between calling and re-raising [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
Reraising again seems inappropriate since you first raise got reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]The reason I considered it is that my hand is a lot stronger than it looks and he is probably 3betting me if he has a flush.

[tuds38]

The check behind on 5th is weird. Makes it seem like he still just had J's at that point, but he should be betting that board almost every time, esp if he has another diamond down.

Your board doesn't really look dangerous on the river so he's prob reraising with any straight or better, but the check on 5th is a little too odd for me. The only dead card on his board is another Q so I say just play it safe and call.

[MrBlueNose]

First of all - I don't like the check on 5th. Allows villain to take control of the pot, take a free card if necessary. I'm betting here.

As for 7th. I'm reraising. Villains hand seems face up to me. He has jacks on 3rd through 5th. He made jacks up on 6th, and it's more likely he ran into a flush or straight than a boat on 7th.

Now...look at your board. AK6T, with two spades. I could never put you on a flush based from that, so I can't see villain fearing the flush at all. More likely he expects you to be reraising with Aces up here(or a rivered broadway I guess), and is 3-betting his rivered flush or straight. I think we have the best hand here about 70% of the time.

If somehow he was slowplaying on 5th, then thats life [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[2461Badugi]

Fifth street makes me think almost all of the hands that beat you here are slowplays: rolled jacks or a fifth-street straight flush. Your river raise looks a lot like Broadway, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's threebetting with a flush. I think I'm pretty happy to cap this, although I'd think twice about four-betting if I could be five-bet.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all - I don't like the check on 5th. Allows villain to take control of the pot, take a free card if necessary. I'm betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]Hmmm- it seems to me that we are either slightly ahead or way behind on 5th. I can't put him on any hand that is correct to fold on 5th (assuming he had a legitimate hand on 3rd), so when I'm ahead I'm only winning a fraction of a bet. However, he might easily re-raise me when I'm behind (and might even be drawing to runner, runner), which costs me an additional full bet I really don't want to pay.

At the time I was expecting a bet to go in (and I think one should have), but I really didn't want two bets to go in.

Is my logic flawed here? How important is it to retain control of the pot? Also, I can bet and still lose control, even if I have the best hand- he can always raise me.

[ QUOTE ]

Now...look at your board. AK6T, with two spades. I could never put you on a flush based from that, so I can't see villain fearing the flush at all. More likely he expects you to be reraising with Aces up here(or a rivered broadway I guess), and is 3-betting his rivered flush or straight. I think we have the best hand here about 70% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]This was my thinking at the time as well. Basically whether or not I should bet here comes down to what my chances are of being ahead- if I am ahead 50% of the time, it's a clear bet (since he can't raise again if he filled up). Unfortunatly, I still don't have a good enough feel for this game to know if, given this action, he is more likely to have a full house or a straight or flush. The 5th street check behind really confused me, because if he HAD bet there I think this would be an easier raise. I actually sat there for quite a while trying to make a decision.

[MrBlueNose]

[ QUOTE ]
]Hmmm- it seems to me that we are either slightly ahead or way behind on 5th. I can't put him on any hand that is correct to fold on 5th (assuming he had a legitimate hand on 3rd), so when I'm ahead I'm only winning a fraction of a bet. However, he might easily re-raise me when I'm behind (and might even be drawing to runner, runner), which costs me an additional full bet I really don't want to pay.

At the time I was expecting a bet to go in (and I think one should have), but I really didn't want two bets to go in.

Is my logic flawed here? How important is it to retain control of the pot? Also, I can bet and still lose control, even if I have the best hand- he can always raise me.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would've expected a bet to go in too, so I was surprised. But assuming split jacks at this point, which is the most likely hand, for him to be ahead he needs to have either a diamond or a ten in the hole. It's more than likely he has like...the 4 of clubs. Granted against his range we're probably only about a 55% favourite, so we're not ahead by THAT much, but in Stud we have to take advantage of small edges like this.

The problem is - by checking and letting him gain control, we're allowing him to play optimally. If he has a diamond or a T in the hole, the right move is for him to bet. If he doesn't, the right move is for him to check. I'd rather be betting and forcing my opponent to call hoping for runner, runner than allowing him to dictate how it goes.

[chucky]

Its reasonable to believe that villian has flush, but I think it is unlikely that he started three to the flush because he does not raise 4th or bet 5th. Therefore it is also reasonable to read his raise on 3rd as his belief that you did not have aces, and on 6th street as jacks up. The problem hero is faced with is that villian will 3 bet with both lower flush and jacks full. You need villian to have lower flush about 21% of the time to break even on capping.