Top two facing heat

[markuisis]

I posted this in the msnl but its not getting too much feedback - I was taking a shot at a 400nl game, I open this cause the game had been playing conservative pf and not 3betting light (its prob marginal but w/e). Villain is nitty 15/12 and seems pretty passive, earlier he flat called a c-bet in position with the nut flush draw on the flop. Whats my action and y? Dunno y text is red btw, doesnt mean I bet or anything.
Sry, copy pasting the post from msnl screwed up, heres a link:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post12932892

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $409.35
BB: $374.50
UTG: $235.90
Hero (MP): $675.20
CO: $506.40
BTN: $425.95

Pre-Flop: 6 9 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $14, CO folds, BTN calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($34) 6 4 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $27, BTN raises to $80, Hero?

If u call, what do u do if turn is the 5 ?, what about the 2 ? thx, who thinks the 5 might actually give us a better chance at winning this hand depending on his actions?
Plz dont say shove flop without saying y (we have top two isnt an argument)

[pineapple888]

Shove because you have top 2. Why?

1.) Value. He'll call with worse.
2.) Protection. Your hand is strong but vulnerable.
3.) Position. You are OOP.
4.) Shoving is fun.
5.) You're not me so he won't have a set.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove because you have top 2. Why?

1.) Value. He'll call with worse.
2.) Protection. Your hand is strong but vulnerable.
3.) Position. You are OOP.
4.) Shoving is fun.
5.) You're not me so he won't have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with protection, but he flatted earlier with the NFD in position so do u think draws make up that big a part of his range? - if not then there isnt much to protect against (not like we have to worry about overcards really). As for value, what hands do u think hell call with that I beat? 96 is unlikely given pf and although 64 is prob in his pf range - is that enough to shove and hope for? (not to mention the times a nit will fold bottom 2 for a full stack - obviously not very often but I imagine some of the time). Im still not sure.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shove because you have top 2. Why?

1.) Value. He'll call with worse.
2.) Protection. Your hand is strong but vulnerable.
3.) Position. You are OOP.
4.) Shoving is fun.
5.) You're not me so he won't have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with protection, but he flatted earlier with the NFD in position so do u think draws make up that big a part of his range? - if not then there isnt much to protect against (not like we have to worry about overcards really). As for value, what hands do u think hell call with that I beat? 96 is unlikely given pf and although 64 is prob in his pf range - is that enough to shove and hope for? (not to mention the times a nit will fold bottom 2 for a full stack - obviously not very often but I imagine some of the time). Im still not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are OOP, so what do you recommend instead? Call and check so he can check behind on the turn? Board pairs the 4 your hand is ruined, runner-runner pair your hand is ruined, he hits a set your hand is ruined and you don't know it. Just get the moniez in now.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shove because you have top 2. Why?

1.) Value. He'll call with worse.
2.) Protection. Your hand is strong but vulnerable.
3.) Position. You are OOP.
4.) Shoving is fun.
5.) You're not me so he won't have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with protection, but he flatted earlier with the NFD in position so do u think draws make up that big a part of his range? - if not then there isnt much to protect against (not like we have to worry about overcards really). As for value, what hands do u think hell call with that I beat? 96 is unlikely given pf and although 64 is prob in his pf range - is that enough to shove and hope for? (not to mention the times a nit will fold bottom 2 for a full stack - obviously not very often but I imagine some of the time). Im still not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are OOP, so what do you recommend instead? Call and check so he can check behind on the turn? Board pairs the 4 your hand is ruined, runner-runner pair your hand is ruined, he hits a set your hand is ruined and you don't know it. Just get the moniez in now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure what I prefer doing, thats y I posted it, im just asking questions such as do u think draws r a big part of his range given the hand i described? do u think he goes broke here with worse too often - if so, then what (remember he was nitty). Who likes calling and bet/calling blank turns to get better equity in case he mixed his play up with a draw? This seems like a spot where u cant just say "u have top two - get it in" given previous hand description and nittiness of player, not saying there isnt value in shoving though, just wondering if u guys consider it the definite best move (if u do, then what about if I had 64).

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shove because you have top 2. Why?

1.) Value. He'll call with worse.
2.) Protection. Your hand is strong but vulnerable.
3.) Position. You are OOP.
4.) Shoving is fun.
5.) You're not me so he won't have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with protection, but he flatted earlier with the NFD in position so do u think draws make up that big a part of his range? - if not then there isnt much to protect against (not like we have to worry about overcards really). As for value, what hands do u think hell call with that I beat? 96 is unlikely given pf and although 64 is prob in his pf range - is that enough to shove and hope for? (not to mention the times a nit will fold bottom 2 for a full stack - obviously not very often but I imagine some of the time). Im still not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overpairs that he flatted with make up a decent part of his range. A 15/12 can have TT+ for sure here, and he's not calling PF and raising on the flop with them to fold to a shove on this board.