MTT - Bubbly draw decision

franknagaijr · #1 10-09-2007, 02:28 AM

Stars MTT 68 players, down to 12, payouts start at 9. The limper was a hold'em mentality who didn't seem to distinguish starting hand values at all, and the raiser had made enough moves that I assumed he was raising a little light. As with all stars payouts, the real money is in the top 3.

Thoughts on the preflop and flop decisions?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t15526
CO: t6202
Button: t6038
Hero: t5086
BB: t8035

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls t400 (pot was t600), CO folds, Button raises to t1800, Hero calls t1600 (pot was t2800), BB folds, UTG calls t1400 (pot was t4400).

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t5800, 3 players)
Hero is all-in t3286, UTG calls t3286 (pot was t9086), Button raises all-in t4238, UTG calls t952 (pot was t16610).

franknagaijr · #2 10-11-2007, 03:43 PM

Bump. Maybe my play was flawless?

davebreal · #3 10-11-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bump. Maybe my play was flawless?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is an automatic reraise preflop for me when blinds are this high. if you end up getting scooped, chalk it up to a cooler or variance.

Buzz · #4 10-12-2007, 02:45 PM

Hi Frank - I don't like calling the pre-flop raise, but I don't like not calling the pre-flop raise either, and going all in before the flop seems rash for tournament play.

As simulated (100,000 runs against two non-folding random hands and a random board), Hero scoops 26%, splits 38% and is out on his ear 36%. Of course, if an all in raise would buy the pot, then an all-in raise is obviously worth while.

As simulated after this flop (100,000 runs against two non-folding random hands), Hero doesn't scoop as much, but also doesn't purely lose as often. (Hero scoops 12%, splits 60% and is out on his ear 28%).

Those sims are against random hands, whereas your opponents presumably have better than random hands (but maybe not).

At this stage of the tournament, every time you play a hand you risk going all-in. And whenever you go all-in, you're taking a chance of getting knocked out of the tournament.

So if a 36% risk of ruin is acceptable to you, then go all-in before the flop. And if a 28% risk of ruin is acceptable to you, then go all-in (as you did) on the second betting round.

The very first rule of playing in a tournament, in my humble opinion, is the rule of survival. You want to amass chips, but even more so, you want to survive. And obviously you risk survival when you go all-in.

I do, at least like going all-in after the flop better than before the flop, because there is less risk of ruin.

I think you played your hand well and heroically for a ring game. I think you played it heroically, but not necessarily well for a tournament. The tactical problem is that you are not the one who has chosen the site for the battle. True, you chose the second betting round to go all-in, but CO chose this deal, not you.

Once CO challenges you by raising the pot, on the first betting round your chip stack is in danger. You have a very nice, very solid starting hand - but CO is the one who has made the move.

You should be the one who makes the move, if possible. And you still have many hands to go.

What to do is difficult and stressful.

Your hand is good enough to play if you are the one who chooses the deal to make a move. On the other hand, you have to seize opportunities when they arise.

Finally, obviously what to do is very opponent dependent.

Tough decision!

Buzz

davebreal · #5 10-12-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The very first rule of playing in a tournament, in my humble opinion, is the rule of survival. You want to survive. And obviously you risk survival when you go all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz - you also need to weigh in the value of gambling to double-up at this stage in a tournament. in small tournaments the payouts other than 1st or 2nd place are very disappointing, and a small move in finish rankings could be meaningless. in order to take down 1st, you obviously need to accumulate all of the chips in play... and you will need to gamble a few times to get there.

Buzz · #6 10-12-2007, 03:20 PM

Hi Dave. I understand what you are writing and I agree with you. I absolutely agree with you. You certainly have to amass chips, and Hero has an excellent starting hand.

What to do here would be an easy decision for me in a ring game or a limit game, but a very, very difficult decision for me in a pot-limit tournament. (In a tournament, in addition to amassing chips, you also have to survive - and these two principles are often in opposition).

I read your post before writing mine. I almost didn't post my response because it represented a different point of view than yours and you have much more practical experience playing pot-limit. Ironically, I posted partly because my response represents the other side of the issue.

Buzz