110,000 New jobs, Unemployment up ???

[DcifrThs]

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You might also be interested in the Birth/Death model. I'm not exactly sure how it plays in over the long run, but a lot of people say it's a bit fishy.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ly-flawed.html

John

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is the birth/death model literally just added to the monthly nonfarm payroll estimates?

are the non farm payroll estimates seasonally adjusted? (if so then the birth/death model is not added to it since the b/d model is not seasonally adjusted and cannot be incorporated in seasonally adjusted data)

where exactly is this model used?

Barron

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Here's one explaination I found, from:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Featur...son060107.html

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Their methodology goes like this:

- The Net Birth/Death model first creates jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis;

- The computer-generated jobs are then added to the jobs actually reported by the payroll survey for the month;

- The new total is then seasonally adjusted which creates the reported monthly unemployment number announced to the public. It's only much later that ongoing payroll surveys confirm or rebut the estimated job creation.

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Hope it's helpful,
John

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thanks.

that stuff in bold i think is what i'd really like to see. if they confirm it with actual jobs created then this should be easy as pie right?

how is the "created" - "actual" jobs distributed?

seems easy if we can get those data.

Barron