|
|
#11
09-04-2007, 03:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Two promising equities!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Lifeway kefir is pretty damn good, it's basically like a mix between yogurt and a smoothie. [/ QUOTE ] What's preventing another company from duplicating this? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing. And Lifeway sucks as a company. They got all their money from dominating the barren Russian / eastern euro foods market by through heavy overpricing in specialty stores. They would have gotten destroyed in any supermarket, which is what will happen with kefir. And finally, the russian way of doing business has never scaled into the US, and never will. Cutthroat efficiency and presence of laws are the 2 biggest differences. For the next 10 yrs at least, investing in Russian managed companies that do consumer-based business in developed economies will not be a good play. 
|
|
#12
09-04-2007, 03:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two promising equities!
It may very well happen as you say. But Lifeway is no stereotypical russian company - in fact, judging by their marketing (radio ads, packaging), which seem very 'americanized', I'd say they are adapting to our way of business really well. In food, packaging is almost as important as taste, and they have that part of the business nailed down. Their ProBugs product seems to be selling well, targeted at kids, and so are their flavored kefirs.
As far as replicating kefir, other companies can certainly do that - but kefir isn't a product like milk. I've tasted other kefirs in the Chicagoland area and imo they're not nearly as good as Lifeway's. They're in the same price range, and have worse packaging/marketing.
|
|
#14
09-04-2007, 06:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two promising equities!
[ QUOTE ]
No [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for my stocks, huh? I'm not pumping, I promise... noone has any thoughts on these things? [/ QUOTE ] Lol, at the thought of pumping on 2+2 forums.
|
|
#15
09-04-2007, 08:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two promising equities!
[ QUOTE ]
It may very well happen as you say. But Lifeway is no stereotypical russian company - in fact, judging by their marketing (radio ads, packaging), which seem very 'americanized', I'd say they are adapting to our way of business really well. In food, packaging is almost as important as taste, and they have that part of the business nailed down. Their ProBugs product seems to be selling well, targeted at kids, and so are their flavored kefirs. As far as replicating kefir, other companies can certainly do that - but kefir isn't a product like milk. I've tasted other kefirs in the Chicagoland area and imo they're not nearly as good as Lifeway's. They're in the same price range, and have worse packaging/marketing. [/ QUOTE ] Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly be long the company for the medium term vs. the S&P or whatever other benchmark. The short is for the long-term. All the things I mentioned are not going to come out until at least 1-2, probably 2-3 years, provided that kefir as a product does take off -- and in the meantime, the stock could go to 100 if right now they do indeed have the best tasting and marketed product. If you believe thats the case, go long for now.
|
|
#16
10-06-2007, 11:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two promising equities!
It's time for an update bump!
At $18.06, a few dollars above my first recommendation, TTWO is still very undervalued. The market is slowly beginning to align with my suppositions from the last few months: TTWO's killer developer lineup and its approach to game development, coupled with cost cutting programs by new management makes for a company that has very bright prospects... certainly brighter than the measly price:sales it sells at now. TTWO: 1.35/1.07 = 1.26 ATVI: 6.48/1.51 = 4.29 ERTS: 18.46/3.09 = 5.97 Yes, this is only one metric, and I am well aware that the ATVI and ERTS could be much more profitable from those sales than TTWO. That's how it has been in the past... but that's not how it will be in the future. The most significant drivers of this profitablity change are the new management and the maturation of TTWO's major investment from a few years ago: its sports franchise. Sports profitability: 2k sports, TTWO's sports brand, is expected to be profitable starting next year. All Pro Football 2k8 was a travesty, but NBA 2k8 is schooling EA Live 08 on every system... It's also very possible that the next time licensing for the NFL rolls around, TTWO will be able to grab a piece, and produce a valid competitor to Madden. New management: The stock is free from the fraudsters of the past. Feder and Zelnick are reputable, and focusing to rid TTWO of unprofitable divisions and to move past the various scandals of the past. Short interest: A nice short term bonus... if my feeling about the valuation of the company is correct then I might be getting an extra x-mas present. Short interest is about 32 million shares out of a total of 74 million. A few positive catalysts and I'll be singing short squeeeeeeeeeze. The media has been touting that Bioshock has been a complete surprise - its success is definitely a surprise to those unfamiliar with the industry. But the surprise cuts to the very heart of why there is value in this company - most of Wall Street is too blinded by the controversy to see the true value driver behind TTWO - the lax, developer friendly approach missing from the red-tape laden, release date committed ATVI and ERTS - the approach that led to Bioshock, and the approach that will lead to many more 'surprise' hits. Like I said in the OP, the market shunned TTWO for delaying GTA IV... the market punished a game publisher that has irregular earnings. Sorry, folks, it takes good products to make money in this industry, and sometimes you need to delay a product to make more money than you would have. I'd rather take higher expected sales and better managed brands than pretend that my company has the predictability of a utility. As the market begins to become aware of TTWO's potential, I expect the P/S to rise to more reasonable levels. Anyway, I know I'm probably very outspoken on this equity, but I've done my research, and never before have I been more sure of a company's value... overconfidence is the bane of the investor or speculator, but there are few industries with which I am more familiar than the gaming world. That said, I'd like to hear any dissenting opinions.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
