Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Topics > Business, Finance, and Investing

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-20-2007, 05:10 PM
skindog skindog is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: wait... what?
Posts: 304
Default Variance

This question is pretty vague and possibly dumb - sorry in advance.

How long til you know whether your trading results are a result of variance or acumen?

I've been daytrading options lately with good results. I'm nowhere near knowing whether it's variance at this point, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

2 years? 5? NEVER?!?!11
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-20-2007, 05:14 PM
ahnuld ahnuld is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 10,945
Default Re: Variance

most of us wont live long enough to ever know.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-20-2007, 05:43 PM
stinkypete stinkypete is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: lost my luckbox
Posts: 5,723
Default Re: Variance

i have no idea, but it would depend on things like your trading frequency, the securities you're trading, and all kinds of other stuff. just like in poker, there's no hard rules.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-20-2007, 08:29 PM
kimchi kimchi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: FU minbet
Posts: 1,246
Default Re: Variance

[ QUOTE ]
most of us wont live long enough to ever know.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's basically it.

A lot depends upon the system you use and the exptancy it produces coupled with the frequency you trade and the % of trades you expect to be profitable.

daytrading 200 scalp trades per day with a 75% success rate will probably show less variance over time than trend following with a 33% success rate and making a dozen or so round-trips per year.

Both systems can have the same expectancy for each unit risked, as the longer-term system can sometimes return huges multiples of the initial risk, although it will probably show more variance.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-20-2007, 10:04 PM
Korch Korch is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 285
Default Re: Variance

if you have to ask, you should save your money.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-21-2007, 12:57 AM
SlowHabit SlowHabit is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,509
Default Re: Variance

I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-21-2007, 01:13 AM
kimchi kimchi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: FU minbet
Posts: 1,246
Default Re: Variance

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

The primary goal of a trader is to become the best trader he can be. Money will follow.

Too many traders bust out trying to make money.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-22-2007, 05:14 PM
nastynatedub nastynatedub is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 47
Default Re: Variance

very few maCe it in day trading due to the fact that it's difficuIt and nearIy impossibIe to determine if there's EV in each trade made....much of it in the ST is variance but in the Iong term they AII go broCe....]ust IiCe in poCer...those who pIay every hand wiII win once in a whiIe but they aIways go broCe sooner or Iater...
....my advice.....pIay a tighter game.....study up on VaIue investing and bet with the best.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-22-2007, 06:06 PM
skindog skindog is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: wait... what?
Posts: 304
Default Re: Variance

[ QUOTE ]
very few maCe it in day trading due to the fact that it's difficuIt and nearIy impossibIe to determine if there's EV in each trade made....much of it in the ST is variance but in the Iong term they AII go broCe....]ust IiCe in poCer...those who pIay every hand wiII win once in a whiIe but they aIways go broCe sooner or Iater...
....my advice.....pIay a tighter game.....study up on VaIue investing and bet with the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I value invest but I also think there's value in trading. The market's not as efficient as people think.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-22-2007, 07:45 PM
SlowHabit SlowHabit is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,509
Default Re: Variance

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

The primary goal of a trader is to become the best trader he can be. Money will follow.

[/ QUOTE ]
This concept obviously apply to any and everything in this world.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.