Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-12-2007, 06:08 PM
darkcore darkcore is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: ticky-tacky boxes
Posts: 813
Default pokersystem question

this came up in another poker forum and -as a mathnoob- i'd like a quick linecheck for my argument.

consider this pokersystem:

1. you play no-limit
2. you buy in for 100bb (but don't reload when you are below 100bb)
3. you quit a table when you are up or down 50bb
4. you quit a table when you played 60 minutes on it

okay, my argument is that this system is not optimal for a winning player (you don't play with full-stacks all the time, you don't really do tableselection (you base it only on stop-loss/win-stop and time), etc.) and thus it should lead to a lower winrate. the standard deviation should be (all other factors equal) the same and the risk of ruin because of this higher (same sd with a lower winrate).

am i missing something here?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-12-2007, 10:19 PM
filsteal filsteal is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: ^IDK, my BFF Billy?
Posts: 1,100
Default Re: pokersystem question

Yes, you're missing something, but it's hard to say if the overall conclusion is right or wrong.

If you're routinely sitting with a shallower stack, then your standard deviation WILL be lower, simply because you'll lose less when you get stacked and win less when you stack somebody else.

So the winrate and standard deviation will both go down. As for what happens to the risk of ruin, who knows.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-13-2007, 01:07 AM
darkcore darkcore is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: ticky-tacky boxes
Posts: 813
Default Re: pokersystem question

yeah, thank you. you picked exactly the point (standard deviation) where i wasn't sure...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-13-2007, 05:40 AM
SunOfBeach SunOfBeach is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Minimax Consulting
Posts: 466
Default Re: pokersystem question

Why leave a good table (ie with bad players) after 60 minutes?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-13-2007, 06:11 AM
darkcore darkcore is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: ticky-tacky boxes
Posts: 813
Default Re: pokersystem question

or why stay at a bad table for 60 minutes?

this system came up after a discussion of the "hit-and-run"-strategy. it is flawed and you'll win less when you use it. but something about my conclusions just felt wrong (filsteal pointed out what i was missing) and that's why i asked for the linecheck.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:01 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.