check my math: KK preflop

[br.bm]

Hi
are there any mistakes in my calculation?

(ATC = any two cards but aces.
I know that KK doesn't have 80% equity vs any two.)

Here is the problem:
--------------------
eff stacks 100BB
Hero KK

Preflop:
Hero: Raise to 5BB
Villian: Reraise to 15BB
Hero: 3bet 50BB
Villian: 4bet All in

Lets assume:
KK equity vs AA is 20%
KK equity vs ATC is 80%

EV vs AA:
0.2 * 1.5 s - 0.8 * 0.5 s = -0.1 s
EV vs ATC:
0.8 * 1.5 s - 0.2 * 0.5 s = +1.1 s
(s = stacks)

If we call 12 times and villian has ATC once we are 0EV.
This means if 1/12 of his range is ATC we have to call.
1/12 = 0.083 or 8.3%
100 % - 8.3 % = 91.7%

If we are 90% sure that villian has AA a call is +EV.

[Kaj]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi
are there any mistakes in my calculation?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Wrong forum.

2. Without stack sizes, your analysis is incomplete.

[mts]

i think you stand to gain 52 chips on a 50 chip investment but I'm only 90% sure.

[ALawPoker]

I think he said they each have 100BB, but I'm not sure what "eff stacks" means exactly.

Yes your math is right, br. If you need to be right 1/12 and you assess you will be right 1/10, then my expert opinion is you should call.

More important than making sure your math is down perfect (since you can't really differentiate between 89% sure vs 92% sure all that effectively) is having some plan when you re-raise to 50. By the time you do that, folding shouldn't even cross your mind. I don't mind the raise to 50 (depending on position, game flow, opponent, etc.), but once you do it you don't really think twice or second guess calling your last 50. If you raised a little less you could think about folding.

BTW, my read of this situation is that he had aces and you got lucky. Am I rite?

[br.bm]

nearly^^
I did this because I ran into Aces 8 times last month. (sucked out vs none [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] )
In every "fold KK pre?" thread everybody says only "never fold" but never says why. So I tried to proof it myself.
Yes the 3bet to 50BB is questionable. But I play NL25 atm so I always 3bet it. Now I'm sure a call is right.

Btw: If you put only 1/4 stack and villian pushes 100BB preflop you need to be more than 70% sure that the guy has aces to fold to a push.
My problem now is to translate the % into "I'm sure", "I'm quite sure" or "He has to have it".

eff stack = effective stack
If I have 80BB and you have 120BB the eff stack is 80BB.

thx for your confirmation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[vidyakotam]

Hi, I think 90% the problem is solved..I understood that it is a stepwise, properly solved problem...but, I think it would be more clear and easy for others....

cheers,
suma valluru
-----------------------------------------
https://www.esumz.com

[br.bm]

what part isn't solved?
how can I write it easier?

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
what part isn't solved?
how can I write it easier?

[/ QUOTE ]
Perhaps you are overthinking this. If you can come up with a statement like "I will only fold if I am more than 90% sure he holds AA", then this is all you really need.

And my opinion of such a statement is simply this. I don't know any player who is good enough to be able to say with confidence that his opponent has a 90% chance of holding AA. I have heard stories of some pros doing this but they are few and far between. I really don't even consider folding KK pf unless there is some weird tourney payout strurcture consideration.

[br.bm]

I totally agree.
I did this to proof it myself. I ran w/ KK into AA 7 times last month (called every time and was pretty sure they had AA) now I can call with confidence making the right move.

Anyway, solving problems like this do give me a better feel for the game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]